钢材周报：供需双降，钢价弱势震荡-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel market shows a pattern of both supply and demand decline, with steel prices weakly oscillating. In the short - term, the market will run in an oscillating manner due to factors such as reduced steel mill profitability, lower iron - water production, and seasonal demand changes [1][5][6] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1成材 (Finished Products) - Supply: The weekly output of rebar from major steel mills nationwide was 2.0854 million tons (-40,500 tons), and that of hot - rolled coils was 3.1816 million tons (-54,000 tons) [5] - Demand: The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.1852 million tons (-136,700 tons), and for hot - rolled coils, it was 3.143 million tons (-175,900 tons) [5] - Inventory: Rebar total inventory was 5.9254 million tons (-99,800 tons), with social inventory at 4.257 million tons (-51,100 tons) and steel mill inventory at 1.6684 million tons (-48,700 tons). Hot - rolled total inventory was 4.1045 million tons (+38,600 tons), social inventory was 3.3302 million tons (+40,900 tons), and steel mill inventory was 774,300 tons (-2,300 tons) [5] - Basis: The basis of the rebar main contract was 156 yuan/ton (+32 yuan/ton), and that of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 15 yuan/ton (-7 yuan/ton) [5] - Summary: The profitability rate of steel mills was 39.83%, a 5.19% week - on - week decrease. Iron - water production was 2.3422 million tons, a 21,400 - ton week - on - week decrease. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.13%, a 1.38% week - on - week increase; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 87.81%, a 0.8% week - on - week decrease. The electric furnace operating rate was 67.03%, a 1.8% week - on - week decrease; the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 50.87%, a 2.12% week - on - week decrease [5] 3.2 Raw Materials - Cost Support: The prices of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke and main coking coal from Lvliang increased, while the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port decreased. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,570 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton), main coking coal from Lvliang was 1,645 yuan/ton (+70 yuan/ton), and 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 773 yuan/ton (-30 yuan/ton) [19] 3.3 Production - related Indicators - Iron - water Production and Furnace Operating Rates: As of November 7, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 1.38% week - on - week, the electric furnace operating rate decreased by 1.8% week - on - week, and iron - water production was 2.3422 million tons, a 21,400 - ton week - on - week decrease. The profitability rate of steel mills was 39.83%, a 5.19% week - on - week decrease. The Tangshan blast furnace operating rate was 91.87%, a 23.54% week - on - week increase [24][28][33] - Steel Output: Rebar output decreased by 40,500 tons week - on - week. In terms of process, long - process output decreased by 37,900 tons week - on - week, and short - process output decreased by 2,600 tons week - on - week. Hot - rolled coil output decreased by 54,000 tons week - on - week but remained at a high level [38] 3.4 Demand - related Indicators - Apparent Demand: Rebar consumption decreased by 136,700 tons week - on - week, and hot - rolled coil demand decreased by 175,900 tons week - on - week [44] - Construction Steel and Hot - rolled Coil Volumes: As of November 7, the weekly average volume of building materials was 96,400 tons, remaining at a low level. The weekly average volume of hot - rolled coils was 28,800 tons. The output of cold - rolled coils was 838,400 tons, a 21,300 - ton week - on - week decrease, and the output continued to decline [48][53] 3.5 Inventory - related Indicators - General Steel Inventory: As of November 7, the inventory of Tangshan billets was 545,500 tons, a 9,000 - ton week - on - week increase. The total inventory of major steel products was 10.7474 million tons, a 25,800 - ton week - on - week decrease [56] - Rebar Inventory: Rebar total inventory decreased by 99,800 tons week - on - week, social inventory decreased by 51,100 tons week - on - week, and steel mill inventory decreased by 48,700 tons week - on - week [60] - Hot - rolled Coil Inventory: Hot - rolled coil total inventory increased by 38,600 tons week - on - week, social inventory increased by 40,900 tons week - on - week, and steel mill inventory decreased by 2,300 tons week - on - week [65] 3.6 Export and Downstream Industry Data - Steel Exports: In October, steel exports were 9.78 million tons, a 690,000 - ton month - on - month decrease. From January to October, the cumulative steel export volume was 97.737 million tons, a 6.6% cumulative year - on - year increase [68] - Automobile Industry: In September, automobile production was 3.276 million vehicles, a 466,000 - vehicle month - on - month increase; automobile sales increased by 369,400 tons month - on - month. New - energy automobile production was 1.617 million vehicles, a 226,000 - vehicle month - on - month increase; new - energy automobile sales increased by 209,000 tons month - on - month [72] - Real Estate Industry: From January to September, national real estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, with a 1% decrease in the decline rate. Specifically, from January to September, the new construction area of houses was 453.99 million square meters, a 18.9% decrease; the completed area of houses was 311.29 million square meters, a 15.3% year - on - year decrease with a narrowing decline. The sales area of newly - built commercial housing decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, with a 0.8% decline; the sales amount of newly - built commercial housing decreased by 7.9% year - on - year, with a 0.6% decline. The funds in place for development enterprises from January to September totaled 7.2 trillion yuan, a 8.4% year - on - year decrease [74][75]