东鹏饮料（605499）：第二曲线高增，持续迈向平台型公司

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Eastroc Beverage with a target price of Rmb 333.00, indicating an expected upside from the current price of Rmb 276.89 [2][6]. Core Insights - Eastroc Beverage is experiencing rapid growth in its second curve, continuously progressing towards becoming a platform-based company. The company achieved a revenue of Rmb 16.844 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.1%, with a net profit of Rmb 3.761 billion, up 38.9% year-on-year [3][11]. - The core category of energy drinks is facing pressure, with revenue growth slowing to 15.1% year-on-year in Q3 2025. However, new product categories such as electrolyte drinks and low-sugar tea are driving significant growth, contributing to a more balanced revenue structure [4][12]. - The company has successfully expanded its product matrix, reducing reliance on a single core product. New products accounted for 16.9% of total revenue in Q1-Q3 2025, indicating a shift towards a more diversified portfolio [4][12]. Financial Performance - The company's gross profit margin was 45.2% in Q3 2025, a slight decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year. However, effective expense control and improved operational leverage have led to a net profit margin increase to 22.7%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [5][13]. - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are Rmb 20.88 billion, Rmb 25.39 billion, and Rmb 30.03 billion, respectively, with net profit forecasts of Rmb 4.57 billion, Rmb 5.77 billion, and Rmb 6.89 billion, reflecting strong growth rates [6][15]. Market Strategy - Eastroc Beverage is focused on multi-category, national, and global strategies, with emerging markets such as North China, East China, and Southwest China showing over 30% year-on-year revenue growth. The company aims to consolidate its leading position in the beverage market and move towards becoming a comprehensive beverage group [5][14].