星源材质（300568）：隔膜行业拐点渐进，盈利有望逐步修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit of 114 million RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a significant year-on-year decline of 67.25%. However, the report suggests that the profitability is expected to gradually recover as the industry approaches a turning point [4][7]. - The average price of separators has decreased, leading to adjustments in the earnings forecast for 2025-2027. The projected earnings per share (EPS) are adjusted to 0.11, 0.37, and 0.46 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 137.4, 40.9, and 33.0 [4][6]. - The report highlights the increasing demand for separators, particularly in the energy storage sector, and the company's strategy to optimize its customer structure and improve profitability through price adjustments [7][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2,957.87 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 13.53%. However, the gross profit margin decreased to 22.58%, down 7.64 percentage points from the previous year [8]. - The company’s EBITDA for 2025 is projected to be 1,068 million RMB, with a significant decline in net profit expected [6][8]. Market Outlook - The separator industry is nearing a turning point, with dry separators expected to see price increases of nearly 30% by mid-2025. The report indicates that the high capacity utilization in the industry supports a favorable supply-demand situation [7][8]. - The company is focusing on research and development of solid-state batteries, with new products being sent to leading battery manufacturers for testing [7]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides updated valuation metrics, including a projected market capitalization of approximately 20,289.27 million RMB and an average trading volume of 1,273.43 million RMB over the past three months [3][6].