GONGNIU(SH:603195) Changjiang Securities·2025-11-11 02:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 121.98 billion yuan, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 29.79 billion yuan, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 27.01 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting year-on-year declines of 3%, 9%, and 5% respectively. In Q3 2025, the revenue was 40.30 billion yuan, with a net profit of 9.19 billion yuan and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 8.59 billion yuan, showing year-on-year declines of 4%, 10%, and 8% respectively [2][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - Traditional business remains under pressure, but there is an estimated recovery in Q3 2025. Revenue declined by 4% year-on-year in Q3, but the decline narrowed by 2.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The smart electrical lighting and electrical connection businesses showed improvement, while the converter and wall switch categories continued to face pressure [10]. Profitability and Cost Management - The change in business structure led to a slight decrease in gross margin, with a year-on-year decline of 1.8 percentage points. The company maintained a cost control trend, with a decrease in the expense ratio by 1.0 percentage points. The net profit margin attributable to the parent company and the net profit margin excluding non-recurring items decreased by 1.5 and 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [10]. Business Development - The traditional business has strong manufacturing and channel barriers but is currently in a bottoming process due to weak industry demand. The company is focusing on high-end upgrades and innovation in product categories such as converters and wall switches. The lighting business is enhancing its competitive advantage in areas like AI interaction and health lighting [10]. New Energy Business - The new energy business continues to expand its product categories and enhance customer service capabilities. The company has launched new products in the TOC segment and is building comprehensive solutions for high-value applications in the TOB segment [10]. International Expansion - The company is accelerating its international expansion, with its electrical connection and home decoration categories expanding from Southeast Asia to Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America. The new energy category is also expanding into emerging markets [10]. Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to the parent company of 40.0 billion yuan, 42.2 billion yuan, and 45.2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 20, 19, and 18 times. The company has strong cash flow and high dividends, with a projected dividend yield of 3.7% for 2025 based on the 2024 dividend payout ratio [10].