株冶集团(600961):三季报点评:平台定位日益清晰,金价上涨提升盈利

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 20.4 CNY based on a 20X PE valuation for 2025 [3][6]. Core Views - The company's profitability is expected to improve significantly due to rising gold prices, with a projected increase in earnings per share (EPS) to 1.02 CNY, 1.43 CNY, and 1.56 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][10]. - The company's strategic focus on dual business development in lead-zinc and precious metals is anticipated to enhance its growth potential, especially with the expected rise in precious metal prices [10]. - The company's asset injection process is likely to accelerate following the restructuring of its shareholding, which is expected to further boost its internal growth momentum [10]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 19,406 million CNY in 2023 to 27,101 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.7% [5][12]. - Operating profit is expected to increase from 755 million CNY in 2023 to 2,043 million CNY in 2027, with a significant growth rate of 38.4% in 2025 [5][12]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 611 million CNY in 2023 to 1,673 million CNY in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 39.1% in 2025 [5][12]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 8.5% in 2023 to 11.9% in 2026 and 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [5][12].