新宝股份（002705）：宏观环境拖累外销，内销实现增长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained rating for the next six months [6][17]. Core Views - The company has shown resilience in profit growth despite a decline in revenue due to macroeconomic pressures, highlighting its strong management capabilities [2][4]. - The company continues to implement cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures through technological innovation and enhanced production efficiency [2][4]. - The company has a strong operating cash flow, which supports its future development [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 12.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 840 million yuan, an increase of 7.1% [1][3]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.48 billion yuan, down 9.8%, and a net profit of 298 million yuan, down 13.1% [1][3]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 21.33%, with a net profit margin of 7.1%, reflecting effective cost control and efficiency improvements [3][4]. - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 was 1.037 billion yuan, an increase of 69.35% year-on-year, indicating strong operational resilience [3][4]. Business Segment Analysis - The company's foreign sales revenue in Q3 2025 was 3.695 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.87%, primarily due to macroeconomic changes affecting demand [2][4]. - Domestic sales revenue in Q3 2025 was 787 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.51% [2][4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the company has been adjusted, with expected net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 at 1.13 billion, 1.22 billion, and 1.36 billion yuan respectively [4][5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.1, 10.2, and 9.2 for the years 2025-2027 [4][5].