TONGWEI CO.,LTD(SH:600438) Huaan Securities·2025-11-11 07:25Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the company is beginning to show signs of recovery in Q3 2025, benefiting from price increases in the industry due to a response against excessive competition [1][5] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 623 billion, 691 billion, and 750 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -32.3%, +10.8%, and +8.7% [5][8] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of -55 billion, 14 billion, and 28 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 21.3%, 126.1%, and 93.3% [5][8] Financial Performance Summary - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of -52.7 billion yuan, with a revenue of 646 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 5.38% [7] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 240.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.57%, but a net profit of -3.15 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 62.69% [7] - The report highlights a significant narrowing of losses in the silicon material segment due to price increases starting in July 2025, with a price increase of approximately 53% observed in Q3 [7] Price Trends and Market Position - The report notes that the price increase for silicon materials has been significant, with the average price for N-type recycled material rising from 34,700 yuan per ton in early July to 53,200 yuan per ton by late September 2025 [7] - The company’s battery and module prices increased by 39% and 1% respectively in Q3 2025, although the transmission of upstream price increases was relatively weak [7] Financial Projections - The company’s projected financial metrics include a gross margin of 1.2% in 2025, improving to 10.0% and 10.1% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [8] - The report anticipates a return on equity (ROE) of -12.9% in 2025, turning positive with 3.3% and 5.9% in 2026 and 2027 [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be -1.23 yuan in 2025, with a recovery to 0.32 yuan and 0.62 yuan in the following years [8]