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隆基绿能(601012):25Q3同环比大幅减亏,BC组件出货放量

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company achieved a significant reduction in losses in Q3 2025, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -8.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year improvement of 4.27 billion yuan [5] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 509.15 billion yuan, down 13.10% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -34.03 billion yuan, a reduction in losses of 31.01 billion yuan [5] - The increase in profitability is attributed to the recovery in silicon wafer profitability and the ramp-up in BC component shipments [5] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 181.01 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.78% year-on-year and 5.53% quarter-on-quarter [5] - The total silicon wafer sales volume for the first three quarters of 2025 was 38.15 GW, and battery component sales reached 63.43 GW [5] - The average price of N-type silicon wafers increased by 53% from 0.88 yuan per piece in July 2025 to 1.35 yuan per piece in September 2025, contributing to the recovery in profitability [5] Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company turned its operating cash flow positive in the first three quarters of 2025, with a net cash flow of 18.19 billion yuan, a significant improvement from -83.67 billion yuan in the same period of 2024 [6] - As of Q3 2025, the company had cash reserves of 513.66 billion yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 62.43% [6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 676 billion yuan, 723 billion yuan, and 742 billion yuan, respectively, with expected net profits of -36 billion yuan, 20 billion yuan, and 49 billion yuan [7] - The report anticipates a recovery in profitability with net profit growth rates of 58.8%, 156.1%, and 144.3% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7]