Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-11-11 10:06Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall cotton harvest in Xinjiang is nearing completion. New - cotton costs are fixed at around 14,600 - 15,000 yuan/ton. The increasing new - season supply will pressure cotton prices. Downstream demand is tepid, but there's a rigid restocking demand from yarn mills. Short - term cotton prices may fluctuate, with attention on hedging pressure around 13,600 - 13,800 [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management - Price Forecast: The monthly price range for cotton is predicted to be 13,400 - 13,800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0543 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0346 [3]. - Risk Management Strategies: - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2601) at 13,700 - 13,800 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell call options (CF601C13800) at 250 - 300 with a 75% ratio [3]. - Procurement Management: For those with low inventory and planning to purchase, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2601) at 13,300 - 13,400 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell put options (CF601P13400) at 150 - 200 with a 50% ratio [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions and Influencing Factors - Likely Positive Factors: Some southern Xinjiang areas have lower - than - expected yields and lower lint percentage, supporting the purchase price. Yarn mills have a rigid restocking demand, and positive market sentiment is driven by Sino - US trade talks [4][6]. - Likely Negative Factors: The new - season cotton output has increased year - on - year, leading to high hedging pressure. As of the end of October, domestic cotton industrial and commercial inventories reached 3818,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 109,000 tons. In October 2025, textile and clothing exports were 22.262 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.59% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.84%, indicating weak downstream demand [6][7]. 3.3 Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Information - Futures Prices: Cotton 01, 05, and 09 closed at 13,560, 13,560, and 13,735 respectively, all down 20 with a - 0.15% change. Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,855, down 10 (- 0.05%), while cotton yarn 05 and 09 had significant drops [8]. - Price Spreads: Cotton basis was 1282, up 18; the flower - yarn spread was 6280, up 15; the internal - external cotton spread was 1872, up 100 [8]. - Internal and External Cotton Price Indexes: CCI 3128B, 2227B, and 2129B decreased slightly, while FCI Index S, M, and L had relatively large drops [9].