罗莱生活（002293）：2025Q3点评：强劲业绩弹性，后续展望乐观

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.39 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 340 million yuan, up 30.0% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 300 million yuan, an increase of 23.2% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue reached 1.20 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, with a net profit of 150 million yuan, up 50.1% year-on-year, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 140 million yuan, an increase of 42.0% year-on-year [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 3.39 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 340 million yuan, reflecting a 30.0% increase year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 300 million yuan, up 23.2% year-on-year. In Q3, the revenue was 1.20 billion yuan, a 9.9% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 150 million yuan, marking a 50.1% year-on-year growth [2][4]. Market Dynamics - The growth in Q3 revenue was driven by strong performance in e-commerce channels, which outpaced direct sales and franchise operations. The franchise channel showed weaker inventory replenishment intentions, but there is potential for recovery in Q4 due to low inventory levels. The furniture business is expected to maintain stable revenue, with losses improving, particularly as the U.S. enters a rate-cutting cycle, which may support a return to healthy growth [10]. Margin and Cost Management - The gross margin improved significantly, increasing by 3.8 percentage points to 48.1% in Q3, benefiting from lower raw material costs and product mix optimization. The sales expense ratio rose by 2.1 percentage points, primarily due to increased e-commerce promotional activities, while the management expense ratio decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 5.6%. Overall, the net profit margin attributable to the parent company increased by 3.4 percentage points to 12.8% [10]. Future Outlook - Looking ahead, the replenishment of franchise inventory is expected to drive positive growth in franchise revenue. The anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts are expected to reduce losses for the Lexington business. Under a neutral outlook, the projected net profits attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 are estimated at 510 million yuan, 580 million yuan, and 640 million yuan, respectively. The current price corresponds to a PE ratio of 15, 13, and 12 times for the respective years. Additionally, the company is expected to distribute a dividend of 0.6 yuan per share in 2025, yielding approximately 6% [10].