苏农银行（603323）：高管增持强信心，耐心资本稳步助力估值修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong belief in its potential to outperform the market by more than 20% over the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The new management team at the company has committed to purchasing at least 1.8 million yuan worth of shares within six months, demonstrating confidence in the company's long-term value [4][7]. - The company has shown stable profit growth, with a 5% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first nine months of 2025, despite only a 0.1% increase in revenue [7]. - The company is balancing growth and risk management, maintaining a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.9% and a provision coverage ratio exceeding 350% [7]. - The report highlights the company's strategy of supporting local economies while ensuring sustainable profitability, with a loan growth of 8.7% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [7]. - The management's proactive share purchase is expected to catalyze valuation recovery, especially as demand begins to rebound [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 4,045.97 million yuan in 2023 to 4,620.52 million yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.5% [6][8]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1,742.59 million yuan in 2023 to 2,264.95 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 5.5% [6][8]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to decline from 11.62% in 2023 to 9.98% in 2027, indicating a gradual decrease in profitability relative to equity [6][8]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decrease from 0.69 in 2024 to 0.46 in 2027, suggesting an improvement in valuation metrics over time [6][8]. Market Comparison - As of November 11, 2025, the company's closing price is 5.36 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 10.8 billion yuan [10]. - The company has a dividend yield of 5.04%, which is competitive compared to other listed banks [10]. - The report compares the company's valuation metrics favorably against peers, with a projected P/E ratio of 5.30 for 2025, indicating potential for attractive returns relative to earnings [10].