Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6] Core Views - The company is expected to see a bottoming out of its fundamentals in 2025, with an anticipated recovery in 2026 and an improvement in valuation. Short-term challenges include old factory utilization rates, order adjustments, and the impact of new factory production in H2, which are expected to continue to pressure net profit margins. However, a stable tax rate and recent efficiency improvements are expected to support a recovery in Q3 net profit margins. In the medium term, stabilization from existing customers and growth from new customers are anticipated to drive a new growth cycle, supported by proactive capacity expansion and an improved industry landscape, which should enhance profitability and valuation [2][4][10]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 186.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 24.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.3%. In Q3 alone, revenue was 60.2 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.3% year-on-year, and net profit was 7.6 billion yuan, down 20.7% year-on-year [4][10]. - The Q3 gross profit margin improved by 1.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter but decreased by 4.8 percentage points year-on-year to 22.2%. The net profit margin attributable to the parent company was 12.7%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.3 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 3.3 percentage points [10][4]. Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to the parent company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 33.6 billion yuan, 40.7 billion yuan, and 47.2 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year changes of -12%, +21%, and +16%. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 21, 17, and 15 times, with a dividend payout ratio of 70%, leading to a forecasted dividend yield of 3.4% for 2025 [2][10].
华利集团（300979）：2025Q3业绩点评：净利率如期改善，期待后续弹性复苏