五芳斋（603237）：中秋错期影响三季度表现，基本盘整体稳定

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company's total revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 is 1.985 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.06%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is 175 million yuan, down 16.89%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items is 166 million yuan, down 17% [2][4]. - In Q3 2025, the total revenue is 394 million yuan, a decrease of 15.68%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is -19.62 million yuan, an increase of 15.01%, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items is -23.35 million yuan, an increase of 10.64% [2][4]. - The company’s core stable revenue source, the rice dumpling series, generated 1.514 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.06%. The mooncake series saw a significant decline of 34.34% to 124.25 million yuan due to the later Mid-Autumn Festival in 2025. The meal series revenue increased by 10.48% to 110.76 million yuan [10]. Financial Performance - The gross profit margin for Q1-Q3 2025 is 38.36%, down 2.81 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin is 8.81%, down 1.46 percentage points year-on-year. The expense ratio is 26.07%, down 1.40 percentage points year-on-year [10]. - For Q3 2025, the gross profit margin is 27.58%, down 1.21 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin is -4.98%, down 0.04 percentage points year-on-year [10]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 120 million, 128 million, and 133 million yuan respectively. The corresponding EPS is projected to be 0.61, 0.65, and 0.68 yuan, with PE ratios of 29, 27, and 26 times based on the current stock price [10].