Gemdale(SH:600383) Haitong Securities International·2025-11-12 08:56Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [4][13]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 23.99 billion RMB, a decrease of 41.48% year-on-year, with a net profit loss of 4.49 billion RMB attributed to lower project scale and declining gross profit margin [14][15]. - The report forecasts EPS for 2025-2027 at -1.13, -0.49, and 0.02 RMB, indicating potential future recovery in profitability [4][13]. - The target price is set at 5.37 RMB based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.45, reflecting a cautious approach due to ongoing industry stabilization [4][13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decline from 98.13 billion RMB in 2023 to 54.10 billion RMB in 2025, representing a decrease of 28.2% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to shift from a profit of 888 million RMB in 2023 to a loss of 5.09 billion RMB in 2025 [3]. - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 was -1.47 billion RMB, down 118.8% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced sales [14][15]. Sales and Land Acquisition - The contracted area in September 2025 was 178,000 square meters, down 52.79% year-on-year, with a contracted amount of 2.23 billion RMB, down 57.12% [15]. - The company has been cautiously replenishing land reserves, acquiring new projects in cities like Wuhan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai [15]. Debt Management - As of September 2025, the company successfully navigated a peak in public debt, with interest-bearing debt decreasing to approximately 69.7 billion RMB, of which 98.5% is bank loans [16]. - The asset-to-liability ratio as of September 2025 was 63.57%, showing a slight improvement from the previous year [16].