公募REITs月报：公募REITs续跌，配置窗口渐行渐近-20251112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, driven by policies and the capital environment, the REITs sector outperformed stocks and bonds, with the consumption and affordable rental housing sectors leading the market. Since the third quarter, REITs have weakened and deviated from stocks and bonds. Despite positive signals from policies, the market reaction has been lagging, and the current correction may offer a layout window for long - term funds [5][8]. - Against the backdrop of a long - term decline in the bond market interest rate center and the continuation of the asset shortage logic, public REITs are expected to meet a large amount of low - interest substitution demand. Their characteristics such as certain cash flows from underlying assets, stable high dividends, and strong bond attributes make them attractive to institutions with stable liability ends like wealth management and insurance [5][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Secondary Market Performance - In October, the public REITs market continued to decline, but the decline was narrower than in September. The CSI REITs (closing) index fell 1.74% in October, while the CSI Convertible Bond index fell 0.11%, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.91%. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 remained flat compared to September, and the ChinaBond Composite Index (total value) wealth index rose 0.64% [9]. - In terms of volatility, the REITs index performed poorly in October, with greater volatility than the CSI Convertible Bond index, only stronger than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and the CSI 1000 [9]. - In October, the new infrastructure and municipal infrastructure sectors led in terms of gains, reaching 5.08% and 3.63% respectively. The ecological and environmental protection infrastructure rose slightly by 1.57%, while other sectors declined. The park infrastructure fell 2.94%, the warehousing and logistics infrastructure fell 1.95%, and the water conservancy infrastructure fell 1.67% [11]. - By project attribute, the property - right type declined by 1.54% in October, far more than the 0.15% decline of the franchise - right type. The top 5 performing REITs in October were Southern Runze Technology Data Center REITs, Southern Wanguo Data Center REITs, CICC First Agricultural REITs, Huatai Jiangsu Expressway REITs, and Fuguo First - created Water Service REITs [12]. 3.2 Transaction Situation - In October, the trading heat was similar to that in September. The average daily turnover rate decreased slightly, while the average daily trading volume increased slightly. The average daily trading volume in October was 505 million yuan, a 1.47% increase from September, and the average daily turnover rate was 0.57%, a 4.51% decrease from September [18]. - By project type, the new infrastructure, water conservancy infrastructure, and affordable rental housing were more popular in the market, with average daily turnover rates of 0.99%, 0.85%, and 0.84% respectively. By project attribute, the property - right type had higher trading heat than the franchise - right type [18]. - In October, the large - scale trading volume declined, with the monthly trading volume at 932 million yuan, down from 1.309 billion yuan in the previous period. The discount rate for large - scale transactions was - 0.79% in October, compared to - 0.30% in the previous period [18]. 3.3 REITs Valuation - For franchise - right REITs, since their future cash flow structure is different and the value at maturity is 0, P/FFO, cash distribution rate, and the REITs valuation yield provided by ChinaBond valuation are more appropriate valuation indicators. For property - right REITs, P/NAV, P/FFO, cash distribution rate, and the REITs valuation yield provided by ChinaBond valuation can all be used as valuation indicators [21]. - Among the asset categories of franchise - right REITs, transportation infrastructure and ecological and environmental protection facilities have lower valuations, with P/FFO of 10.51 and 10.79 respectively, and dividend yields of 9.5% and 7.3%. Municipal infrastructure and water conservancy infrastructure have relatively higher valuations, with P/FFO reaching 31.71 and 20.04 respectively, and dividend yields of only 6.2% and 6.3% [22]. - Among the asset categories of property - right REITs, park infrastructure and warehousing and logistics infrastructure have lower valuations, with P/NAV of 1.20 and 1.21 respectively, and dividend yields of 4.8% and 4.0%. Affordable rental housing and consumption infrastructure have relatively higher valuations, with P/NAV reaching 1.55 and 1.45 respectively, and dividend yields of only 2.9% and 4.2% [22]. 3.4 Primary Market Situation - As of October 31, 2025, the number of listed public REITs products in China reached 76, with a total market value of 22.0577 billion yuan, an increase of one product compared to the end of September but a decrease of 403 million yuan in total market value [26]. - Currently, there are 21 REITs funds waiting to be listed, including 12 initial offerings and 9 expansion offerings. CITIC Construction Investment Shenyang International Software Park REITs has been established, and Huaxia Anbo Warehousing REITs has reached the pricing stage. One product was issued in October, but none were listed [26].