浙江自然（605080）：浙江自然2025Q3点评：业绩延续承压，后续有望企稳

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 820 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 180 million yuan, up 12.1% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 140 million yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 130 million yuan, down 30.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 40 million yuan, down 40.6% year-on-year, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 8.435 million yuan, down 68.2% year-on-year [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported total revenue of 820 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 180 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.1%. However, the net profit excluding non-recurring items decreased by 6.2% to 140 million yuan. In Q3, the company faced significant challenges, with revenue dropping to 130 million yuan, a decline of 30.4% year-on-year, and net profit falling to 40 million yuan, down 40.6% year-on-year [2][4]. Market Outlook - Short-term order disruptions are expected due to reduced customer orders influenced by tariffs and weak domestic replenishment. This has led to a decrease in capacity utilization and a decline in gross margin by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year. The sales and management expense ratios increased by 2.4 percentage points and 5.7 percentage points year-on-year, respectively. The net profit margin excluding non-recurring items fell by 7.6 percentage points to 6.4%, indicating significant pressure on financial metrics due to weak order performance [10]. Future Projections - Looking ahead, it is anticipated that new business year clients will continue to place orders, with expectations for better growth in Q4 2025 and H1 2026. In the medium to long term, as tariffs stabilize, orders are expected to gradually recover. The company is also expected to ramp up production capacity and see new business lines, such as insulated bags and water sports products, begin to contribute to revenue. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 210 million yuan, 240 million yuan, and 270 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding valuations of 17X, 15X, and 13X [10].