Lilly(US:LLY) Ping An Securities·2025-11-12 10:51Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [37] Core Insights - Eli Lilly's Q3 2025 revenue increased by 54% year-on-year, reaching $17.6 billion, primarily driven by the strong sales of Tirzepatide [5][10] - The company raised its full-year revenue guidance to a range of $63 billion to $63.5 billion and adjusted EPS guidance to $21.80 to $22.50 [5][10] - Tirzepatide's sales reached $6.515 billion in Q3 2025, a 109% increase, while the weight-loss version Zepbound generated $3.588 billion, a 185% increase [16][5] - The combined revenue from these two products accounted for 57% of Eli Lilly's total Q3 revenue [16][5] Summary by Sections Part 1: Q3 2025 Financial Overview and Key Events - Eli Lilly's Q3 2025 revenue was $17.6 billion, with a 54% year-on-year growth, driven by Tirzepatide sales [10] - The cardiovascular metabolic segment contributed 74.9% of total revenue, with Q3 revenue of $13.178 billion, up 78% [10] - Key events included the rapid increase in market share for GLP-1 products and the approval of Inluriyo for specific breast cancer patients [11][10] Part 2: Core Product Sales Analysis - Tirzepatide is a key growth driver, with Q3 sales of $10.103 billion from both versions [16] - The U.S. market share for Eli Lilly's GLP-1 products reached 57.9%, significantly higher than competitors [16] - The total sales for GLP-1 dual-target drug Tirzepatide in the first three quarters surpassed Keytruda, reaching $24.837 billion [16] Part 3: Future Pipeline Milestones - Clinical trials for Tirzepatide and Retatrutide for MASLD have commenced, with significant data readouts expected [32] - Applications for Orforglipron and Tirzepatide for various indications are planned for submission to regulatory authorities [32] - Regulatory approvals for Tirzepatide and other drugs are in progress, with some applications moving towards full approval [32] Part 4: Investment Recommendations - The GLP-1 product market shows significant potential, with a wide range of indications being explored [35] - Investors are advised to monitor the progress of domestic GLP-1 related companies such as Innovent Biologics and Hengrui Medicine [35]