Semir(SZ:002563) Changjiang Securities·2025-11-12 23:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Insights - The company has shown resilience in growth compared to peers, with a focus on controlling discounts and reducing inventory, which has yielded positive results. The sentiment from childbirth subsidy policies is expected to boost retail performance, particularly for the Balabala brand, contributing to improved earnings. The company is also expected to benefit from ongoing new retail reforms and its strategy of opening new stores despite market challenges [2][4][8]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 9.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 540 million yuan, a decrease of 28.9% [4][8]. - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 940 million, 1.03 billion, and 1.11 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year changes of -17%, +9%, and +8%, leading to a price-to-earnings ratio of 15, 14, and 13 times [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.70 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, and a net profit of 210 million yuan, up 4.5% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 220 million yuan, reflecting a 13.1% increase [4][8]. - The gross profit margin in Q3 was 42.5%, slightly up by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to better discount control and an increase in direct sales [8]. - The inventory at the end of Q3 was 4.14 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.6% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24.5%, primarily due to winter inventory [8].