航运日报：11月下半月运价持续修正，关注交易所对于2月合约交割结-20251113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The freight rate continued to be adjusted in the second half of November, and attention should be paid to the definition of the delivery and settlement of the February 2026 contract by the exchange [1]. - The trading of the December 2025 contract focuses on the rhythm, with the overall valuation support constantly rising. The final valuation range of the December contract is initially estimated to be between 1700 - 1850 points [3][4]. - The February 2026 contract may have a large expected difference but is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectation. Attention should be paid to the definition of its delivery and settlement price [4]. - The strategy suggests that the December contract will fluctuate, and the February contract will fluctuate with an upward bias. There is no arbitrage strategy for now [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Online Quotations: Different shipping companies have different price quotations for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Maersk's price for the 47th week is 1365/2280, and the price range for the 48th week is 2000 - 2100 dollars/FEU. Some companies have also issued price increase letters [1]. - Geopolitical Aspect: The Houthi armed forces stated that if the enemy resumes aggression against Gaza, they will resume military operations and the ban on Israeli shipping in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea [2]. - Dynamic Supply: The average weekly capacity in the remaining 4 weeks of November is 246,500 TEU, and the average weekly capacity in December is 338,800 TEU. There were 10 blank sailings and 1 TBN in November, and 3 TBNs in December [2]. 3.2 Futures Market Research - December 2025 Contract: The trading rhythm of the December contract involves trading price increase expectations and the actual implementation of price increase letters. If there are three rounds of price increase letters and each round is implemented with an increase of 300 dollars/FEU, the price in the second half of December may reach 3000 dollars/FEU, and the valuation ceiling of the December contract may be around 2100 points [3]. - February 2026 Contract: There may be a large expected difference, but it is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectation. The traditional definition of the delivery and settlement price may be affected by the Spring Festival holiday, and attention should be paid to the exchange's new definition [4]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral Strategy: The December contract will fluctuate, and the February contract will fluctuate with an upward bias [6]. - Arbitrage Strategy: None [6]. 3.4 Other Data - Futures Contract Positions and Prices: As of November 12, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 74,149.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 57,514.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided [5]. - Spot Prices: The SCFI and SCFIS prices of different routes on different dates are given, such as the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price on November 7 being 1323 dollars/TEU [5]. - Container Ship Deliveries: 226 container ships with a total capacity of 1.879 million TEU have been delivered in 2025 as of November 9. The number and capacity of ships in different size ranges are also provided [5].