Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-11-13 03:05Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals. In the short - term, precious metals are strengthening. London gold's resistance has moved up to 4200, and if broken, it may retest the previous high of 4380. Its support is at 4120. Silver has skyrocketed due to the slow transfer of the COMEX 2512 main contract, with a resistance level moved up to 54.5, support at 51, and strong support at 49.5 - 50 [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes Review - On Wednesday, precious metal prices rose strongly due to the expected passage of the US temporary spending bill and the Fed's internal personnel adjustment favoring loose - money expectations. However, the possible absence of the US October CPI and non - farm payroll reports restricts the Fed's possibility of cutting interest rates at the December FOMC meeting. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4201.4 per ounce, up 2.07%; COMEX silver 2512 contract closed at $53.23 per ounce, up 4.9%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 945.76 yuan per gram, up 0.16%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 12073 yuan per kilogram, up 2.02% [2]. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations have slightly rebounded. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged on December 11 is 40.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 59.4%. For January 29, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 23.5%, a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 51.5%, and a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 25%. For March 19, the probability of unchanged rates is 13.4%, a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 39.4%, and a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 36.4%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 0.28 tons to 1046.64 tons, while iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 15088.63 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 8.8 tons to 583.1 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 7.9 tons to 822.4 tons as of the week ending November 7 [3]. This Week's Focus - In terms of data, focus on the US CPI report on Thursday evening. Regarding events, on Friday at 01:15, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak on monetary policy; at 01:20, 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack will participate in a fireside chat; at 23:05, 2025 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid will speak on economic outlook and monetary policy. On Saturday at 03:30, 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan will participate in a fireside chat [4]. Price and Inventory Data Tables - Precious Metal Price Table: It shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures, as well as the CME gold - silver ratio [6]. - Inventory and Position Table: It presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE, CME, and SGX gold and silver inventories, as well as SHFE and fund positions in gold and silver [16][18]. - Stock - Bond - Commodity Summary Table: It includes the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread [21].