KUAISHOU(HK:01024) NORTHEAST SECURITIES·2025-11-13 06:44Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperforming the Market" [5] Core Insights - The short video market in China is rapidly developing, with Douyin and TikTok leading globally, collectively surpassing 2.3 billion users by February 2025 [1][2] - The industry is characterized by a duopoly between Douyin and Kuaishou, which together account for 95.3% of the user penetration as of 2023 [2][32] - User behavior is shifting towards deeper engagement and commercialization, with 48.6% of users making purchases influenced by short videos or live streams [3][26] - The profitability model of the industry is evolving, with a focus on platforms that provide strong original content and invest in e-commerce and local services [4] Summary by Sections 1. Short Video Platforms: "Two Superpowers and Many Strong Players" - The short video industry has transitioned from content production to commercial transformation, with a significant increase in user-generated content [14] - The market size is expected to reach approximately 420 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 17.8% year-on-year growth [31] - Douyin and Kuaishou maintain a stable duopoly, with Douyin's monthly active users projected to reach 914 million and Kuaishou's 460 million by June 2025 [32] 2. Supply Side: Competition Between Two Giants - Douyin leverages algorithm-driven content and a diverse ecosystem to maintain its leading position, while Kuaishou focuses on localized content and community engagement [47][64] - Douyin's brand value is projected to reach 105.8 billion USD in 2025, ranking it seventh globally [48] - Kuaishou's AI initiatives are enhancing content production efficiency and commercial conversion rates [64] 3. Demand Side: User Behavior and Market Dynamics - The user base has peaked, with a total of 1.053 billion short video users in 2023, indicating a shift towards maximizing existing user value [23] - Users are increasingly spending over 30 minutes daily on short video platforms, with a significant portion engaging in commercial activities [26][30] 4. Future Outlook: Market Expansion and User Engagement - The micro-short drama segment is experiencing rapid growth, with market size expected to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2027 [38] - The industry is moving towards a free model supported by advertising, which is expected to dominate traditional payment models [43] 5. Business Models: Complementary Revenue Sources - Douyin's revenue streams include advertising, e-commerce, live streaming, and gaming, with advertising being the core pillar [44][45] - The integration of content production and commercial activities creates a self-reinforcing business cycle [45] 6. Comparative Analysis: Douyin vs. Kuaishou - Douyin's content is more focused on entertainment and lifestyle, while Kuaishou emphasizes daily life and grassroots entertainment [71]