GONGNIU(SH:603195) Huachuang Securities·2025-11-13 08:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.03 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 920 million yuan, down 10.3% year-on-year [2][9]. - The traditional business is under pressure due to industry conditions, but the company is actively developing new products and moving towards smart ecosystems to mitigate the impact of low demand in the real estate sector [9]. - The company is making significant progress in its new energy business, which is expected to form a second growth curve in the future [9]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 41.7%, a decline of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the increasing revenue share from the lower-margin new energy business [9]. - Operating cash flow improved significantly, with a net cash flow of 1.24 billion yuan in Q3 2025, up 90.2% year-on-year [9]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 16.83 billion, 16.66 billion, 17.81 billion, and 18.71 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.2%, -1.0%, 6.9%, and 5.0% [4][10]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 4.27 billion, 3.99 billion, 4.38 billion, and 4.66 billion yuan for the same years, with corresponding growth rates of 10.4%, -6.6%, 9.7%, and 6.3% [4][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025E is 2.21 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20 [4][10]. - The target price is set at 54.6 yuan, compared to the current price of 43.80 yuan [4][10].