POP MART(HK:09992) Wanlian Securities·2025-11-13 11:51Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the潮玩 (trendy toy) sector [4]. Core Insights - The潮玩 industry is characterized by its integration of various cultural elements, including art, design, and popular IPs, leading to a unique product offering that appeals to consumers [2][3]. - The Chinese潮玩 market is experiencing rapid growth, driven by increasing disposable income, the rise of emotional consumption, and the emergence of quality domestic IPs [3][4]. - The competitive landscape is fragmented, with new domestic players leading market growth, while established international brands maintain a significant presence [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1.潮玩 Industry Overview and Value Chain -潮玩 is defined as toys that incorporate trendy culture, featuring high visual recognition and limited release mechanisms [2]. - The value chain consists of three segments: upstream (IP supply and operators), midstream (manufacturers), and downstream (retailers and consumers) [2][3]. 2. Comparison with the Japanese Toy Industry - The Japanese toy industry serves as a reference for China, having evolved through economic cycles, with a notable shift towards virtual entertainment during economic downturns [3][19]. - Despite challenges like declining birth rates, the Japanese market has seen growth in related sectors such as animation and gaming, which has positively impacted the潮玩 industry [3][22]. 3. Growth of the Chinese潮玩 Market - The Chinese潮玩 market is projected to grow from 229 billion yuan in 2020 to 763 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 35.11% [3][33]. - The market remains fragmented, with the top five players holding a combined market share of 23.7%, indicating potential for consolidation [4][52]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on潮玩 companies that cover the entire value chain and possess quality IP resources, as they are likely to outperform in the competitive landscape [4][7].