Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 1.829 billion, 368 million, and 354 million yuan respectively in the first three quarters of 2025, representing year-on-year declines of 8%, 31%, and 33%. In Q3 2025, the figures were 430 million, 63 million, and 59 million yuan, showing year-on-year declines of 48%, 71%, and 72% [2][6]. - The decline in revenue and profit in Q3 was primarily due to the impact of tariffs leading to capacity switching. However, with the improvement in orders, profitability is expected to recover [2][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue decreased by 48% year-on-year, mainly due to the U.S. tariffs affecting capacity switching and adjustments in some customers' operational strategies. The current order volume from Vietnam is gradually increasing, and Q4 is expected to show improvement [11]. - The decline in revenue has pressured profitability, with Q3 gross margin dropping by 13.5 percentage points and net profit margins decreasing by 11.4 and 12.3 percentage points year-on-year. The main reason for the decline in gross margin was the weakened scale effect due to reduced revenue [11]. Competitive Advantages - The company has significant manufacturing advantages in the high-end thermos cup market, with a trend towards high-end products requiring better insulation performance, stability, and surface treatment technology. The company is well-positioned to meet these demands [11]. - The production capacity in Vietnam is fully operational, with a large scale and rapidly improving utilization and efficiency. The equipment and process levels in Vietnam are now comparable to those in China, and local procurement of raw materials has reached a high level [11]. Growth Drivers - Non-U.S. regions, new customers, and new product categories are expected to drive the company's growth. The trend of thermos cups is expanding in non-U.S. markets, and new customer reserves are anticipated to contribute to future growth [11]. - The company is actively developing new product categories, including high-altitude heating thermos cups and rapid cooling water cups, which are part of its key R&D projects [11]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with a mid-year dividend of 144 million yuan announced for 2025, corresponding to 47% of the net profit attributable to the parent for H1 2025. Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 500 million, 680 million, and 830 million yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17, 12, and 10 times [11].
嘉益股份（301004）：嘉益股份2025Q3点评：关税扰乱出货节奏，Q4有望修复