KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Dongguan Securities·2025-11-14 08:43Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [54]. Core Insights - The October CPI turned positive year-on-year, indicating a recovery in demand, with a 0.2% increase compared to the previous month [51]. - The SW food and beverage industry index rose by 4.28% from October 31 to November 13, outperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 4.45 percentage points [12]. - All sub-sectors within the food and beverage industry outperformed the CSI 300 index during the same period, with the pre-processed food sector showing the highest increase of 13.07% [13]. - Approximately 96% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns, with notable gainers including Huanlejia (+76.90%) and Sanyuan Shares (+49.79%) [16]. - The overall PE (TTM) for the SW food and beverage industry is about 22.00 times, which is below the five-year average of 32 times [19]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW food and beverage industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a rise of 4.28% from October 31 to November 13, ranking eleventh among the primary sectors [12]. - All sub-sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index, with the pre-processed food sector leading at 13.07% [13]. - About 96% of stocks in the industry achieved positive returns, with significant increases from Huanlejia, Sanyuan Shares, and Zhu Laoliu [16]. Industry Data Tracking - Baijiu Sector: The price of Feitian decreased to 1640 RMB/bottle, down 20 RMB from October 30, while the prices of Puwu and Guojiao 1573 remained stable [24]. - Condiment Sector: Prices for soybean meal and white sugar increased, while the price of glass packaging rose slightly [27]. - Beer Sector: The price of barley decreased to 2210 RMB/ton, while the prices of glass and aluminum increased [33]. - Dairy Sector: The average price of fresh milk fell to 3.02 RMB/kg, a decrease of 0.01 RMB from October 31 [38]. - Meat Products Sector: The average wholesale price of pork rose to 18.12 RMB/kg, an increase of 0.16 RMB from October 30 [39]. Industry News - Meituan Flash Purchase reported a 562% year-on-year increase in baijiu transaction volume on November 1 [42]. - The export value of baijiu from Zunyi increased by 551.8% from January to September [43]. - In October, the national baijiu price index fell by 0.17% month-on-month [46]. Company Announcements - Guizhou Moutai announced a share repurchase plan with a budget of 15 to 30 billion RMB [49]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 23.957 RMB per share, totaling approximately 300.01 billion RMB [50]. Weekly Industry Perspective - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery of demand following the positive CPI in October, with a focus on the baijiu sector's performance amid weak consumption recovery [51].