Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-11-14 09:22Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Paper pulp and offset paper futures prices are expected to maintain a slightly oscillating trend in the short term, with the price center slightly shifting downward [3]. - For paper pulp, the futures strategy is to short at high levels in the short term and continue to focus on the 12 - 01 reverse spread, while the options strategy is to wait and see [10]. - For offset paper, the futures strategy is to short at high levels in the short term, and the options strategy is to wait and see [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Risk Management - Price Range Forecast: The monthly price range forecast for paper pulp is 4750 - 5600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.06% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 5.62%. For offset printing paper, the price range is 4150 - 4350, with a volatility of 9.72% and a historical percentile of 50.00% [2]. - Risk Management Strategies - Inventory Management: When the inventory of finished products (softwood pulp/offset paper) is high and there are concerns about price drops, recommend shorting paper pulp/offset paper futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25%. Also, sell call options to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises unexpectedly [2]. - Procurement Management: When the inventory of paper - making enterprises is low and they want to purchase according to orders, recommend buying paper pulp/offset paper futures to lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 25%. Sell put options to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2]. Core Contradiction Analysis - Paper Pulp: The paper pulp futures price first dropped significantly and then rebounded. The spot price fell by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, the US government shutdown had a negative macro - impact, and port inventory increased by 10.2 tons. However, the shutdown of some pulp mills provided some support [3]. - Offset Paper: The offset paper futures price declined due to the price reaching a high and then correcting, and the lack of fundamental support for the previous price increase, along with insufficient market confidence [3]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - Likely Positive Factors: Some pulp mills have shut down, and tariffs on the US remain unchanged [6]. - Likely Negative Factors: Macro - sentiment has weakened, port inventory is high and difficult to reduce, and paper pulp spot prices have generally fallen [11]. Price and Spread Data - Futures Price and Spread: On November 14, 2025, the closing prices and price changes of paper pulp (SP) and offset printing paper (OP) futures and their spreads are provided, showing daily and weekly fluctuations [14]. - Spot Price and Regional Spread: The spot prices and regional spreads of paper pulp and double - offset paper on November 13 and 14, 2025, respectively, are presented, with some prices remaining unchanged and showing certain regional differences [15]. Basis Data - Paper Pulp Basis: The daily changes in the basis of paper pulp on November 12, 2025, including daily and weekly changes, are shown for different varieties and contracts [7]. - Offset Paper Basis: The daily changes in the basis of offset paper on November 14, 2025, including daily and weekly changes, are provided for different contracts [7].