涪陵榨菜（002507）：25Q3经营稳健，餐饮、电商渠道增长较快

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [4]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue and net profit of 1.999 billion and 673 million yuan respectively in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.84% and 0.33% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue and net profit of 686 million and 232 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.48% and 4.34% [1]. - The main product category, pickled vegetables, is expected to remain stable, with the fastest growth coming from the catering channel, which saw a 20% increase in the first three quarters [1]. - The company plans to continue developing new products to explore new growth areas in the condiment market [1]. - The family consumption channel remains the largest, while the catering and e-commerce channels have shown growth rates of 20% and approximately 10% respectively [1]. Financial Summary - Gross margin and net margin in Q3 2025 decreased by 3.24 and 0.04 percentage points to 52.93% and 33.86% respectively, primarily due to increased promotional support for new products and rising costs [2]. - The company expects stable raw material prices for green vegetables, indicating no significant fluctuations in costs [2]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2.4 billion, 2.6 billion, and 2.7 billion yuan, with growth rates of 2%, 6%, and 6% respectively [2]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 820 million, 890 million, and 950 million yuan, with growth rates of 3%, 8%, and 7% respectively [2]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 19X, 18X, and 16X for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [2]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 2.449 billion yuan, with a slight decline of 3.86% [3]. - The estimated EBITDA for 2025 is 983.14 million yuan, with a projected net profit of 824.21 million yuan [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 0.71 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.91 [3]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 9.714 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 5.94% [8].