Semir(SZ:002563) Orient Securities·2025-11-15 15:17Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 7.04 CNY based on a 16x PE valuation for 2026 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see continuous improvement in terminal retail starting from the fourth quarter, with significant growth in winter clothing sales anticipated due to favorable weather conditions [11]. - The report indicates that the company's online growth rates for the Senma and Balabala brands have been adjusted upwards for the next three years, while sales and management expense ratios have been lowered [3][12]. - The financial forecasts for 2025-2027 project earnings per share of 0.36, 0.44, and 0.53 CNY, respectively, reflecting an increase from previous estimates [3][12]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 13,661 million CNY in 2023 to 18,084 million CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.7% [5][14]. - Operating profit is expected to fluctuate, with a peak of 1,930 million CNY in 2027 after a dip in 2025 [5][14]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 1,122 million CNY in 2023 to 1,420 million CNY in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 19.2% in 2027 [5][14]. Market Position and Competitive Analysis - The company has shown resilience in the face of industry challenges, with its Balabala brand ranking first in the Tmall maternal and infant category during recent promotional events [11]. - The report highlights the potential for positive leverage effects on franchise income as terminal sales improve, which could enhance overall profitability [11].