锡周报：有色及贵金属-20251116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, tin prices rebounded significantly, approaching the previous high of 300,000 yuan. The recent fundamental performance of tin is relatively strong, with continuous destocking of domestic social inventory and obvious supply bottlenecks. The resumption of production in Myanmar is far from sight, and Indonesia's export volume has significantly decreased due to export quota restrictions at the end of this year and in the first quarter of next year. Demand benefits from the development of AI, and macro funds have a high enthusiasm for chasing AI metals. However, on a weekly basis, social inventory increased significantly with the price increase, and the overseas LME 0 - 3 structure turned to contango, indicating that the fundamentals are difficult to keep up with the price. The recent rise in tin prices is mainly affected by macro - sentiment, and tin has good elasticity given its relatively strong fundamentals. However, the price's pull - back on Friday shows that without macro - support, the fundamental contradictions are insufficient to support a price breakthrough above 300,000 yuan. Attention should be paid to the potential impact of the US government shutdown and US Q3 earnings reports on price declines [5]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Trading Volume, Open Interest) 3.1.1 Spot - This week, the LME 0 - 3 was at a contango of $87 per ton, and the domestic spot was at a premium of 600 yuan per ton. Overseas premiums declined, while premiums in Baltimore and Taiwan increased [10][15]. 3.1.2 Spread - This week, the tin inter - month structure changed from the previous B structure to the C structure [19]. 3.1.3 Inventory - This week, domestic social inventory increased by 410 tons, and futures inventory increased by 238 tons. LME inventory increased by 30 tons, and the注销仓单 ratio dropped to 3.75% [25][30]. 3.1.4 Funds - As of this Friday, the settled funds in Shanghai tin futures were 2.69202 billion yuan, and the funds flowed in over the past 10 days [35]. 3.1.5 Trading Volume and Open Interest - This week, the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai tin futures decreased slightly, while the open interest increased slightly. The trading volume of LME tin increased slightly, and the open interest continued to rise [37][42]. 3.1.6 Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, the open interest - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin futures increased slightly [47]. 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) 3.2.1 Tin Ore - In July 2025, the output of tin concentrate was 6,409 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.63%. In September 2025, the import volume was 8,714 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.68%, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 26.11%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan per ton, while the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan decreased to 8,000 yuan per ton. The profitability of tin ore imports increased slightly [51][52]. 3.2.2 Smelting - In September 2025, the domestic tin ingot output was 10,510 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces increased slightly to 69.96% [58][60]. 3.2.3 Import - In September 2025, domestic tin ingot imports were 1,269 tons, exports were 1,640 tons, and the net export was 1,748 tons. The tin ingots imported from Indonesia to China were 676 tons. The latest import profitability was - 15,453 yuan per ton [64]. 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Products, End - Users) 3.3.1 Consumption Volume - In September 2025, the apparent consumption volume of tin ingots was 10,031 tons, and the actual consumption volume was 12,302 tons [72]. 3.3.2 Tin Products - This week, the downstream processing fees decreased slightly. The operating rate of solder enterprises in September increased by 784.8%. The production and sales volume of major tin - plated sheet enterprises in July decreased slightly [75]. 3.3.3 End - User Consumption - In September 2025, the production of end - user products showed mixed performance. The monthly production of integrated circuits, electronics, and smartphones increased. In the home appliance sector, the production of air conditioners increased, and the production of color TVs and washing machines increased slightly. The consumption of home appliances and new energy increased month - on - month. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, in line with the performance of tin prices [82][84][89].