债市专题研究：风偏回落，哑铃优先

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the medium - term, the expectation of a slow - bull market in the equity market remains solid. With a temporary decline in market risk appetite, the dumbbell strategy is expected to achieve excess returns. The valuation factor and volatility factor are expected to strengthen marginally. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the risk of excess drawdown due to style mismatch in the convertible bond market. It is recommended to maintain a neutral position to enjoy the excess returns brought by the spill - over of the equity bull market, taking into account both growth and defense [1][22] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Convertible Bond Weekly Thinking - From November 10 to November 14, 2025, the style of the convertible bond market changed significantly, with the tech - growth style retreating and the energy and consumption indices strengthening. The main line of the convertible bond market is not clear, and sector rotation has accelerated. The technology sectors represented by AI computing power and semiconductors have declined, while the power equipment and photovoltaic industries have performed well. The dividend style has strengthened due to risk - aversion and overseas tech valuation bubbles. As the year - end approaches, some investors may lock in profits, and the market is likely to be dominated by rotation, increasing the difficulty of convertible bond trading [11] - In the volatile market, the valuation of bond - like convertible bonds is firm, and the market tends to be defensive in the short - term. As of November 14, 2025, the median price of convertible bonds is close to 134 yuan, a recent high. The market style has shifted from offensive to defensive, with bond - biased convertible bonds performing better than equity - biased ones. The pure - bond premium rate of bond - like convertible bonds has been rising. In terms of valuation, the convertible bond valuation is oscillating at a high level, with the premium rate of bond - like convertible bonds at 84.51%, the balanced convertible bonds at about 22.66%, and the equity - like convertible bonds at 10.18%, down about 1.13 percentage points from the recent high [3][12] - In the volatile market, attention should be paid to the tail risk of the momentum factor to avoid the risk of excess return drawdown caused by trend reversal. The convertible bond momentum factor has performed well this year, mainly because it has captured the "trend effect" in the convertible bond market since Q2 2025. However, with the continuous small - scale outflow of passive funds represented by ETFs, there is a possibility of style switching in the convertible bond market. The momentum effect brought by liquidity premium may be the source of excess returns in the convertible bond market this year. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the risk of excess drawdown due to style mismatch. As the equity market enters the performance verification stage, the valuation factor and volatility factor are expected to strengthen, enabling investors to enjoy the excess returns from the value regression of undervalued convertible bonds and through high - selling and low - buying in the volatile market [4][14][19] - In November, investors are recommended to focus on convertible bonds such as Shangyin, Shouhua, Aola, Jingke, Baolong, Keshun, Yingbo, Wei, Jin 25, and Anji [23] 2. Convertible Bond Market Tracking 2.1 Convertible Bond Market Conditions - The report provides the performance data of various convertible bond indices in different time periods (recent week, recent two weeks, since September, recent month, recent two months, recent half - year, and recent one - year), including the Wande Convertible Bond Energy Index, Wande Convertible Bond Materials Index, etc. [24] 2.2 Convertible Bond Individual Securities - The report shows the top ten and bottom ten individual convertible bonds in terms of price increase and decrease in the recent week [26][27] 2.3 Convertible Bond Valuation - The report presents the valuation trends of bond - like, balanced, and equity - like convertible bonds, as well as the valuation trends of convertible bonds with different parities [28][36] 2.4 Convertible Bond Price - The report shows the proportion trend of high - price bonds and the median price trend of convertible bonds [38]