锌产业链周度报告-20251116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the strength - weakness analysis of the zinc industry [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc is expected to show a differentiated trend with difficult - to - resolve internal and external contradictions, maintaining a volatile view. Domestic supply has significant production cuts, consumption has entered the off - season, and the zinc price shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic. The export window is open, but the export volume is limited, and the internal - external arbitrage driving logic is not strong [3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data - Market Review: Last week, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22,425 with a weekly decline of 1.30%, and the night - session closing price was 22,485 with a night - session increase of 0.27%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 3014.5 with a weekly decline of 1.70% [6] - Futures Trading and Position Changes: The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc main contract last Friday was 123,632, an increase of 36,371 from the previous week, and the position was 100,153, a decrease of 12,357. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 27,561, an increase of 19,871, and the position was 227,510, an increase of 6,094 [6] - Inventory Changes: Shanghai Zinc warehouse - receipt inventory was 71,753, an increase of 2,485; total Shanghai Zinc inventory was 100,892, an increase of 684; social inventory was 157,900, a decrease of 800; LME zinc inventory was 38,975, an increase of 4,075; bonded - area inventory was 3,800, unchanged [6] - Fundamental Data and Information: The import zinc ore processing fee was 84 dollars/ton, a decrease of 15; the import zinc ore smelting profit was - 3,486 yuan/ton, an increase of 77 [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - Inventory: Zinc ore and smelter finished - product inventories have declined from high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventories have decreased [9] - Profit: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical median level. Mine enterprise profits have rebounded, smelting profits have declined, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits have remained stable [11][12] - Operation Rate: The zinc smelting operation rate has declined, and the downstream operation rate is at a historical low - to - medium level. Zinc concentrate operation rate has rebounded, refined zinc operation rate has declined, and downstream galvanizing operation rate has rebounded while die - casting zinc and zinc oxide operation rates have declined [13][14] 3.3 Trading Aspect - Spot: The spot premium in Guangdong and Tianjin is weak. Overseas premiums are differentiated this week, with the Singapore premium remaining stable and LME CASH - 3M rising slightly [17][18] - Spread: Shanghai Zinc maintains a C - structure, but there are certain changes in the far end [20] - Inventory: This week shows a slight inventory reduction, and the position - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME total inventory has increased, and the proportion of cancelled warrants has dropped significantly [24][28] - Futures: The domestic position is at a historical median level [31] 3.4 Supply - Zinc Concentrate: Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production has increased, import ore processing fees have decreased this week, and domestic ore processing fees have decreased significantly. Ore arrival volume is at a high level, and smelter raw - material inventories have decreased [34][35] - Refined Zinc: Smelting output has rebounded and is at a historical high. Smelter finished - product inventories have decreased and are at a historical high. Zinc alloy production is at a high level [42] - Recycled Zinc Raw Materials: The operation rate of 87 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills is provided, along with prices of recycled zinc raw materials such as galvanized pipe slag and secondary zinc oxide [45][46] 3.5 Zinc Demand - Refined Zinc Consumption: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [53] - Downstream Operation Rate: The downstream monthly operation rate has declined slightly and is mostly at a historical low - to - medium level [56] - Terminal Demand: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [70] 3.6 Overseas Factors - Natural Gas, Carbon, and Electricity: Data on European natural gas futures prices, EU carbon quota prices, and electricity prices in some European countries are provided, as well as the profitability of zinc smelters in some European countries [72][73][75]