煤焦周度观点-20251116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's expectation of future coal supply recovery has strengthened due to the National Development and Reform Commission's re - emphasis on energy production and supply guarantee. Combined with the previously low blast furnace start - up data, the demand space for coal and coke has also been suppressed, leading to a significant decline in the previously high valuation of coal and coke recently [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coal and Coke Weekly Views - Supply: There is a certain环比 repair in production in some producing areas, and Mongolia maintains a high traffic volume. The market's expectation of energy production and supply guarantee for the upcoming winter has strengthened, resulting in a major adjustment in supply expectations [3] - Demand: The trading enthusiasm for coking coal has dropped significantly, and the auction non - sale rate has increased. Coking enterprises' inventory replenishment has reached a relatively healthy level, but the blast furnace start - up of downstream steel mills has been fluctuating [4] - Macro: Overseas, the US government shutdown has ended, but the overall risk appetite has not further broken through upwards, and there is no resonant positive factor at home and abroad [4] 3.2 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes - Coal: FW raw coal production is 853.81 (+5.42), FW clean coal production is 435.66 (+2.71), iron - water production is 236.88 (+2.66), MS total inventory increases by 10.8, independent coking inventory decreases by 1.0, mine raw coal inventory increases by 15.3, mine clean coal inventory decreases by 0.5, steel mill coking inventory increases by 2.9, and port inventory decreases by 5.8. The profit of commercial coal is 593 (+24), and the Mongolian 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt is 1301 [6] - Coke: The daily average output of independent coking plants is 63 (-0.59), the daily average output of steel mill coking enterprises is 46.17 (+0.08), iron - water production is 236.88 (+2.66), MS total inventory decreases by 7.7, independent coking inventory decreases by 3.3, steel mill inventory decreases by 4.2, and port inventory decreases by 0.1. The average profit of coking enterprises is - 34 (-12), and the Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt is 1664 [6] 3.3 01 Coking Coal Fundamental Data - Supply - Weekly: The production of FW raw coal and clean coal shows an increasing trend. The 523 - sample mine daily average clean coal production has different trends in different years [9][11][13] - Monthly: The production of coking bituminous coal and coking clean coal shows different trends in different months and years [15] - Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance: The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at various ports shows different trends in different years [17][20][21] - Inventory - Pit - mouth: This week, the raw coal inventory of sample mines increased by 6.06 tons to 142.19 tons week - on - week, and the clean coal inventory increased by 7.23 tons to 87.58 tons week - on - week [29] - Port: This week, the coking coal port inventory is 298.5 tons, a decrease of 5.77 tons week - on - week [31] - Coking Plant: Data shows the inventory and available days of coking coal in coking plants in different regions and different capacities [34][36][38] - Steel Mill: Data shows the inventory and available days of coking coal in steel mills and their coking plants in different regions [40] 3.4 02 Coke Fundamental Data - Supply - Capacity Utilization - Coking Plant: The capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises in different samples and different capacity ranges are presented [43] - Steel Mill: The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises shows certain trends [45] - Production - Coking Plant: The daily average production of 230 independent coking plants and all - sample independent coking enterprises shows different trends [47] - Steel Mill: The daily average production of 247 steel enterprises shows certain trends [49] - Inventory - Coking Plant: The inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises and 230 independent coking plants shows different trends [51] - Steel Mill: Data shows the inventory, average available days, and regional inventory of coke in steel mills [52][54][55] - All - sample Aggregation: The total inventory of coke shows certain trends [57] - Demand - Pig Iron: The data shows the supply - demand difference, daily average supply, and daily average demand of coke, as well as the daily average production of pig iron in 247 steel enterprises [59] - Profit: The data shows the disk profit of coke per ton, the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises, and the prices of different types of coke [62][63] 3.5 03 Coal and Coke Spot - Futures Prices - Coking Coal Futures: The trading data of coking coal 2601 and coking coal 2605 futures contracts, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests, are presented [66] - Coke Futures: The trading data of coke 2601 and coke 2605 futures contracts, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests, are presented [69] - Coal and Coke Month - Spread: The month - spread data of JM2601 - JM2605 and J2601 - J2605 are presented [73] - Coal and Coke Spot: The prices of different types of coking coal and coke in the spot market are presented [76] - Coal and Coke Basis: For coking coal, the spot price falls with the futures price, and the basis fluctuates narrowly; for coke, the basis shows a sign of peaking with the decline of the spot price [81]