动力煤产业链周度报告-20251116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the power coal industry, covering aspects such as price trends, supply and demand dynamics, inventory levels, and transportation conditions. It indicates that the short - term trading sentiment of power coal pit - mouth prices has weakened, while import coal prices are rising. Supply shows a mixed picture with domestic production having different trends in different time - scales, and global and regional supply also varying. Demand is influenced by multiple factors including power consumption, industrial use, and energy substitution. Inventory levels are changing, and transportation conditions involve aspects like port operations and freight rates [4][6][25]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal Fundamentals Data - Power coal pit - mouth prices are stable in the short - term, and trading sentiment has weakened, while import coal prices are rising [4] - Domestic supply of power coal has expanded on a weekly basis. As of November 14, the output of 462 sample mines was about 38.465 million tons, a 0.03% week - on - week increase, and capacity utilization slightly increased. The 462 sample mines account for about 65% of the national total capacity [6][11] - In October 2025, the total production of raw coal was 406.75 million tons, a 1.15% month - on - month and 2.3% year - on - year decrease [12] - The global port coal out - bound volume decreased on a weekly basis, but Australian coal out - bound volume continued to rise [14] - The total amount of coal floating to China has increased [16] - As of November 7, the main arrival volume of power coal was 7.3135 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5433 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 4.4683 million tons [19] 3.2 Power Coal Demand - This week, the demand for power coal for electricity consumption increased on a weekly basis. The average daily consumption of 25 provinces was 5.11 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.16 million tons. The average coal supply was 5.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.21 million tons. The average daily consumption of coastal eight provinces was 1.8199 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.017 million tons, and that of inland 17 provinces was 3.2927 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1117 million tons [25] - The demand for chemical coal decreased on a weekly basis [26] - The coal supply of coastal eight - province power plants increased, and they started to replenish stocks. The inventory of inland 17 - province power plants steadily increased [28][34] - In October, the total social power generation decreased, and the new - energy power generation capacity declined. However, the wind and nuclear power generation assistance increased on a weekly basis [25][37] - In September, the coal consumption for electricity and metallurgy decreased, while that for chemical, construction, and heating remained relatively stable [42] 3.3 Power Coal Inventory - As of November 14, the mine inventory of power coal sample enterprises was 3.04 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.971 million tons [44] - The ports in the Bohai Rim region had a slight inventory build - up, and the port power coal market was in a stalemate [47] 3.4 Power Coal Transportation - The port coal intake decreased, while the out - take data continued to rise rapidly. Long - term contract demand may be maintained [53] - The power coal freight index slightly declined, the international dry - bulk freight increased, and the short - term transportation cost remained at a high level [55]