hbky(SH:600985) Changjiang Securities·2025-11-16 23:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.07 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 3.07 billion yuan year-on-year, representing a 74% decline. In Q3 2025, the net profit was 40 million yuan, down 1.17 billion yuan year-on-year (97%) and down 300 million yuan quarter-on-quarter (89) [2][6] - The coal price is expected to improve further from Q4 2025, which may lead to better profitability in coal operations compared to Q3. Future growth is anticipated from the recovery of the Xinhu Mine by year-end, the expected production of 8 million tons from the Tao Hutu project in the first half of 2026, and the construction of 8.5 million tons of non-coal mining capacity and 2×660MW power generation units expected to be operational by year-end [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company produced 13.04 million tons of coal, a decrease of 2.63 million tons year-on-year (17%), and sold 9.81 million tons, down 2.06 million tons (17%). The decline in production and sales was mainly due to adjustments in production and sales schedules. In Q3 2025, coal production and sales were 4.13 million tons and 3.34 million tons, respectively, down 1.22 million tons (23%) and 510,000 tons (13%) year-on-year, and down 470,000 tons (10%) and 170,000 tons (5%) quarter-on-quarter [12] - The average selling price of coal for Q1-Q3 2025 was 804 yuan per ton, down 311 yuan per ton (28%) year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the average selling price was 743 yuan per ton, down 309 yuan per ton (29%) year-on-year and down 4 yuan per ton (1%) quarter-on-quarter [12] - The cost per ton of coal for Q1-Q3 2025 was 461 yuan, down 96 yuan (17%) year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the cost was 446 yuan per ton, down 95 yuan (18%) year-on-year and up 20 yuan (5%) quarter-on-quarter [12] Future Outlook - The company expects improved profitability in coal operations starting from Q4 2025 due to rising coal prices. The Xinhu Mine is anticipated to resume operations by year-end, and the Tao Hutu project is expected to start production in the first half of 2026. Additionally, the company has 8.5 million tons of non-coal mining capacity under construction and 2×660MW power generation units expected to be operational by year-end, which are projected to contribute to incremental profits [2][12] Earnings Forecast - The company’s earnings are projected to be 1.5 billion, 2.3 billion, and 2.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. As of November 13, the corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are expected to be 23.75, 15.42, and 14.63 times [12]