Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-11-17 03:43Overall Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The recent commodity market shows that most varieties lack trend continuity, with major sectors like black, energy - chemical, and agricultural products in a volatile pattern. It's advisable to use options or futures arbitrage strategies instead of unilateral trend strategies due to low winning rates. Consider selling near - month deep out - of - the - money options to earn time value. Focus on varieties with continuous divergence structures and those that increase positions, volume during decline and are resistant to drops. Be cautious with the inter - month reverse arbitrage strategy during the upcoming position transfer period [2][5]. - The commodity market is in a volatile state this week, with a balance between bulls and bears. Valuations are low and the real - world situation is weak. Different sectors have different performances: non - ferrous metals are oscillating at high levels under the influence of precious metals; agricultural products like domestic corn and soybeans are rising, but the US soybean market is facing an oversupply issue; the energy - chemical sector has some varieties with loose supply - demand conditions; and in the black sector, except for coking coal protected by policies, steel demand remains weak and iron ore may experience a supplementary decline due to potential steel mill production cuts [4]. Summary by Catalog Market Overview - The overall commodity market is in a volatile pattern this week, with K - lines showing alternating yin and yang, indicating a balance between bulls and bears. Valuations are low and the real - world situation is weak [4]. Sector Analysis - Non - ferrous Metals: Under the influence of precious metals, non - ferrous metals are oscillating at high levels. Aluminum continues to strengthen due to capacity bottlenecks, and the tight supply of electrolytic aluminum in Europe and the US has not been alleviated [4]. - Agricultural Products: Domestic corn and soybeans are rising, but the US USDA report has lowered US soybean export volume, leading to a plunge in US soybean prices on Friday night. It's not recommended to chase high prices of US soybeans or domestic soybean meal [4]. - Energy - Chemical Sector: Some varieties in the energy - chemical sector have loose supply - demand conditions. Methanol's production profit was previously high, and the market has reduced it first due to weak demand. Currently, the valuations of energy - chemical varieties are low [4]. - Black Sector: Except for coking coal protected by policies, steel demand remains weak, and iron ore may experience a supplementary decline due to potential steel mill production cuts [4]. Data Tables - Plate Capital Flow: The total capital flow is 8.746 billion. Precious metals have a capital inflow of 4.291 billion (53.2%), non - ferrous metals 4.153 billion (70.2%), black metals 349 million (7.8%), energy - 51 million (- 3.4%), chemical - 143 million (- 4.4%), feed breeding 1.04 billion (50.0%), oilseeds 1.884 billion (41.8%), and soft commodities 254 million (15.3%) [9]. - Black and Non - ferrous Weekly Data: It includes price, inventory, valuation, position, position difference, and annualized basis data for various black and non - ferrous metal varieties such as iron ore, rebar, and copper [9]. - Energy - Chemical Weekly Data: It provides price, inventory, valuation, position, position difference, and annualized basis data for energy - chemical varieties like fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, and asphalt [11]. - Agricultural Product Weekly Data: It contains price, inventory, valuation, position, position difference, and annualized basis data for agricultural products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean oil [12].