流动性宽松无虞，年末利率或窄幅震荡下行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The monetary policy will maintain its supportive stance and continue to safeguard liquidity. The central bank may shift its focus from "preventing capital idling" to "stabilizing financing" and "promoting demand," and continue to protect inter - bank liquidity. The new mention of "strengthening interest rate policy implementation and supervision to reduce bank liability costs" in the third - quarter monetary policy report may create more room for the overall decline of the bond market [4][94]. - From November to December, the market may show a narrow - range oscillatory downward trend before the loose expectation significantly boosts the bond market. Short - term liquidity disturbances have passed, and liquidity is expected to be loose within the year. The market's expectation of overall loosening may gradually rise, but it is difficult to form a "synergy" to drive the bond market down before it significantly increases. The lower limits of the yields of 30 - year and 10 - year (old bonds) treasury bonds are conservatively estimated to be around 1.9% and 1.7% respectively [2][95]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Important Matters - The central bank aims to restrict "involution - style competition" in the financial industry and maintain a reasonable profit margin. It will conduct an 800 - billion - yuan 6 - month (182 - day) buy - back repurchase operation on November 17, 2025, with a net investment of 50 billion yuan [7]. - In October 2025, the year - on - year decline in credit data was significant. From January to October, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.9 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. However, the increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 1.16 trillion yuan less year - on - year [10]. - The third - quarter monetary policy report was released on November 11, 2025. Compared with the second - quarter report, it removed the statement about "preventing capital idling" and emphasized "maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions." It also added the mention of "strengthening interest rate policy implementation and supervision to reduce bank liability costs" [4][14]. 3.2 Money Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations and Fund Rate Trends - From November 10 to 14, 2025, the central bank injected 112.2 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 49.58 billion yuan due, resulting in a net injection of 62.62 billion yuan. From November 17 to 21, it is expected that 124.2 billion yuan of base currency will be withdrawn, including 112.2 billion yuan from reverse repurchase and 12 billion yuan from treasury cash deposits [19]. - Due to the tax period, the fund rate fluctuated last week. As of November 14, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.430%, 1.495%, 1.373%, and 1.467% respectively, with changes of 3.80BP, 2.68BP, 4.08BP, and 5.43BP compared to November 7 [25]. 3.2.2 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Volume - In the primary market, the issuance scale of inter - bank CDs last week was 710.22 billion yuan, with a maturity scale of 751.84 billion yuan and a net financing scale of - 41.62 billion yuan. As of the 46th week of 2025, the cumulative issuance scale of inter - bank CDs for the year reached 29.74 trillion yuan [30]. - The issuance rate of inter - bank CDs increased last week. The average issuance rates of 3 - month and 1 - year CDs of state - owned banks were 1.59% and 1.64% respectively, with changes of 1.75BP and 0.58BP compared to the previous week [34]. - In the secondary market, the yields of inter - bank CDs of all maturities continued to rise. The yield of 1 - month AAA - rated CDs rose 2.28BP to 1.49%, and the 1Y - 3M spread was at the 52.95% quantile level [36]. 3.3 Bond Market 3.3.1 Primary Market - Last week, the supply of discount treasury bonds and long - term and ultra - long - term treasury bonds increased. The number of interest - rate bond issuances was 96, with an actual issuance amount of 726.866 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 403.531 billion yuan. From January to November, the net financing rhythm of local government bonds was faster than that of treasury bonds. As of November 14, the cumulative net financing scale of various treasury bonds in 2025 was about 6.09 trillion yuan, and that of local bonds was about 6.67 trillion yuan [38]. - Last week, the supply scale of local bonds increased significantly. The number of treasury bond issuances was 6, with an actual issuance amount of 309.32 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 244.32 billion yuan; the number of local bond issuances was 73, with an actual issuance amount of 285.066 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 256.001 billion yuan; the number of policy - bank bond issuances was 17, with an actual issuance amount of 132.48 billion yuan and a net financing amount of - 96.79 billion yuan [45]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market - Affected by the tax period, the volatility of the fund market increased, and interest rates showed an oscillatory trend. The liquidity premium of active bonds was generally stable. The average spread between the active and sub - active bonds of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds was about - 6BP [38]. - The 10 - year - 1 - year treasury bond term spread narrowed slightly to 40.36BP, at the 30.17% quantile level since 2022; the 30 - year - 1 - year treasury bond term spread narrowed 1.59BP to 73.77BP, at the 36.60% quantile level since 2022 [61]. - The long - term local - treasury spread narrowed, while the ultra - long - term local - treasury spread widened. As of November 14, the spread between 10 - year local bonds and 10 - year treasury bonds was 15.60BP, narrowing 4.98BP compared to the previous week and at the 30.64% quantile level since 2022; the spread between 30 - year local bonds and 30 - year treasury bonds was 22.19BP, widening 2.00BP compared to the previous week and at the 73.53% quantile level since 2022 [63]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the scale of leveraged trading declined, with an average of about 7.44 trillion yuan. In the cash - bond market, the buying intensity of state - owned banks continued to weaken, with a buying scale of 46.28 billion yuan for treasury bonds within 5 years. Rural commercial banks were at the buying - selling critical point, preferring to increase holdings of treasury bonds over 5 years and 5 - 10 - year policy - bank bonds. The承接 forces of insurance and funds weakened, and their preferences for duration became more differentiated. Insurance increased its net buying of local bonds over 10 years, accounting for 92% of the net buying of interest - rate bonds, while funds mainly increased holdings of policy - bank bonds within 5 years [65][77]. - The current average position - adding cost of major trading desks is generally below 1.825% (except for funds). The position - adding costs of rural commercial banks, securities firms, funds, and other products are about 1.823%, 1.822%, 1.831%, and 1.824% respectively [65][78]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement price of rebar futures decreased 0.55% week - on - week, the settlement price of wire rod futures remained unchanged, the settlement price of cathode copper futures increased 1.27%, the cement price index increased 0.03%, and the Nanhua Glass Index decreased 5.41%. The CCFI index increased 3.39%, and the BDI index decreased 1.28%. The wholesale price of pork decreased 0.93%, and the wholesale price of vegetables decreased 0.35%. The settlement prices of Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures decreased 0.97% and 1.77% respectively. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.08 [88]. 3.6 Future Outlook - The monetary policy will maintain its supportive stance and continue to safeguard liquidity. The central bank may shift its focus to "stabilizing financing" and "promoting demand," and continue to protect inter - bank liquidity. The new mention of reducing bank liability costs may create more room for the bond market to decline. The weakening financial data in October also indicates the necessity of maintaining a supportive monetary policy [94]. - From November to December, the market may show a narrow - range oscillatory downward trend before the loose expectation significantly boosts the bond market. Short - term liquidity disturbances have passed, and liquidity is expected to be loose within the year. The market's expectation of overall loosening may gradually rise, but it is difficult to form a "synergy" to drive the bond market down before it significantly increases. The lower limits of the yields of 30 - year and 10 - year (old bonds) treasury bonds are conservatively estimated to be around 1.9% and 1.7% respectively [2][95].