Muyuan Foods (SZ:002714) Guoxin Securities·2025-11-17 07:50Group 1: Livestock Industry Outlook - The livestock industry is expected to experience a significant reversal, with both beef and milk prices projected to rebound, driven by a reduction in domestic beef production capacity and a historical high in the meat-to-milk price ratio, which may accelerate the culling of dairy cows [1][15][45] - Domestic beef prices have been on a downward trend, with a cumulative decline of nearly 20% since June 2023, reaching a low of 23.77 CNY/kg by February 2025, while the market price for beef has dropped to 51.38 CNY/kg, down 6.5% year-on-year [15][21] - The supply of beef is expected to tighten as the number of cull cows decreases, leading to a potential price increase for beef starting in 2025, with prices anticipated to rise until 2027 [21][45] Group 2: Swine and Poultry Farming - The investment focus is shifting from cyclical trends to company management and cash flow generation, with leading companies in the swine and poultry sectors expected to benefit from improved cash flow and profitability amid industry-wide capacity reductions [2][9] - In the swine sector, the official capacity control is expected to enhance the cash flow of leading enterprises, positioning them as attractive investment opportunities [2][9] - The poultry sector is anticipated to see limited supply fluctuations, with leading companies likely to achieve higher cash flow and dividend returns as demand recovers [2][9] Group 3: Feed Industry Dynamics - The deepening industrialization of livestock farming and clear division of labor in the feed industry are expected to allow leading feed companies to further enhance their competitive advantages through technology and service [2][9][12] Group 4: Pet Industry Growth - The pet industry is viewed as a promising new consumption sector, benefiting from demographic trends, with domestic brands rapidly emerging. The performance of leading pet food companies is expected to show strong growth through 2026 [2][9][12] - Recommendations include leading domestic brands such as Guai Bao Pet and Zhong Chong Co., which are positioned to capitalize on the growing market [2][9][12] Group 5: Bulk Agricultural Products Overview - The agricultural products market is currently in a bottoming phase, with expectations of upward movement in the medium to long term. Key products include corn, soybeans, and oilseeds, which are projected to see stable supply and price support [3][9] - The domestic corn market is expected to maintain strong bottom support, while soybean imports are anticipated to rise, influencing domestic prices positively [3][9]