Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is expected to drop below 50%, risk aversion continues to rise, and risk assets are generally weak. Macro - level negative factors have led to a weak market trend today, with copper prices under pressure and falling [3]. - The uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cuts has increased, while China's monetary policy tends to be loose, resulting in large short - term fluctuations in copper prices. The Indonesian mines are gradually resuming production, but spot demand remains sluggish, inventories are high, and there may be some pressure on the spot side in the future. There are contradictions and high uncertainties between the medium - term macro - expectations and spot demand [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - Due to macro - level negative impacts, the market is weak today. The US dollar rises and the RMB falls, and non - ferrous metals generally decline. Both Shanghai copper and LME copper fall, as well as domestic spot copper [3]. - Shanghai copper closes at 86,450 and spot copper at 86,620. The spot is at a premium of 170 points over the futures. The spot basis premium rises to 105 points, and spot trading is poor. The LME spot turns to a premium of $4 this week, indicating improved foreign spot demand. US copper inventories continue to rise to a new high this week, LME copper inventories are stable, and Shanghai copper inventories rise slightly, showing weak spot demand. The RMB exchange rate rises significantly this week, the Yangshan copper premium drops to a recent low of $32, indicating poor domestic spot demand. The LME - Shanghai ratio of copper prices rises to 8.01, and international copper is at a premium of 537 points over Shanghai copper, with the foreign ratio higher than the domestic one [3]. Technical Analysis - Today, LME copper falls slightly and trades around $10,825. Shanghai copper hits a low and then rebounds, falling slightly and closing at 86,450. The technical pattern is weak. The trading volume of Shanghai copper rises while the open interest falls, indicating a large market divergence [4]. Data Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount (yuan/ton) | Yangshan Copper Premium (dollars/ton) | LME Copper - Futures - Spot Spread | Main Contract LME - Shanghai Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | November 11 | 7.1224 | 380 | 33.5 | - 15 | 8 | | November 12 | 7.1124 | 190 | 33.5 | - 21 | 8.02 | | November 13 | 7.0971 | - 100 | 33.5 | - 14 | 8 | | November 14 | 7.0998 | 240 | 33.5 | - 6 | 7.99 | | November 17 | 7.1058 | 170 | 32 | 4 | 8.01 | [5]
金货期业弘：美联储政策难料，铜价承压回落