港股、海外周观察：AI科技还要调整多久

Group 1 - The report suggests that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, with a potential slowdown in upward momentum, but the current positioning is attractive for medium to long-term allocation [1] - There are no significant positive macro policy signals expected in the short term, and the market may refocus on policy ahead of the Central Economic Work Conference in December [1] - The Hong Kong technology sector is still undergoing adjustments, with insufficient upward momentum for AI technology stocks, particularly as the market awaits signals from Nvidia's upcoming earnings report [1][2] Group 2 - Historical data indicates that dividend stocks tend to perform relatively well in November and December, and the current market is following this trend [1] - In the U.S. stock market, the Dow Jones increased by 0.3%, while the S&P 500 rose by 0.1%, and the Nasdaq fell by 0.5%, with telecommunications and energy sectors leading gains [1] - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve continues to send hawkish signals, reducing the likelihood of rate cuts in December, with expectations dropping from 98% to 53% [1][3] Group 3 - The report notes that the U.S. government has ended its longest shutdown in history, which may alleviate liquidity concerns in the market [2] - Upcoming earnings reports from key companies like Nvidia and Walmart are expected to influence market sentiment, particularly in the technology and consumer sectors [2] - The report emphasizes that while macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain, the reopening of the government is expected to release liquidity and ease tensions in the U.S. market [2] Group 4 - The report indicates that the impact of tariffs on inflation is more of a one-time effect, and the risk of a downturn in U.S. employment should not be overlooked [3] - It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve will still consider a rate cut in December, especially with upcoming economic data releases [3]