南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报-20251118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current demand on the demand side is strong, with prices of core battery materials like lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium hexafluorophosphate rising. However, there may be a seasonal decline in downstream power cell production near December, and whether energy - storage cell production can offset this decline is a key factor. Overall, the subsequent price volatility of lithium carbonate is expected to increase, and the lithium carbonate futures price this week is predicted to show a "widely fluctuating and weakly downward" trend in the range of 82,000 - 97,000 yuan/ton, with short - term correction risks [3][5]. - On the supply side, the arrival of more lithium concentrate at ports this month can ease the tight supply of lithium ore, and the release of salt - lake production capacity will continuously supplement the lithium salt market. The resumption speed of "Jianxiaowo" is a crucial variable. If its resumption exceeds market expectations, it will expand the lithium salt supply scale and potentially suppress prices [3]. - The concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts at the end of November needs attention. A significant reduction in warehouse receipts may lead to speculation in the market, directly affecting lithium carbonate prices [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - Price Forecast and Volatility: The strong pressure level of the lithium carbonate LC2601 contract is 100,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 45.5% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 78.9%. It is expected that the lithium carbonate futures price this week will be in the range of 82,000 - 97,000 yuan/ton, showing a "widely fluctuating and weakly downward" trend [2][5]. - Contract Data: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 93,520 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1,680 yuan (-1.76%) and a weekly increase of 6,980 yuan (8.07%). The trading volume is 1,487,724 lots (an 8.84% daily increase and a 64.85% weekly increase), and the open interest is 484,357 lots (a 13.96% daily decrease and an 8.00% weekly decrease). Other contract spreads and warehouse receipt data also show corresponding changes [8]. 3.2 Spot Data - Lithium Ore and Lithium Salt Prices: Prices of various lithium ores such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and lithium phosphate aluminum stone have increased to varying degrees, with daily increases ranging from 0.60% to 6.13%. Lithium salt prices, including industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, have also risen, with daily increases between 1.04% and 1.49% [23]. - Cell Material Prices: Prices of core cell materials like lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium hexafluorophosphate have increased, with the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rising by 2.48% daily [23]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - Basis: The basis of the lithium carbonate main continuous contract shows certain fluctuations. The average basis quotes of different brands for the LC2601 contract range from -1,600 to 0 yuan [33][34]. - Warehouse Receipts: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 26,953 lots, a decrease of 217 lots from the previous day. Warehouse receipts at different warehouses also show corresponding changes [36]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - Production and Import Profit: The production profit from purchasing lithium ore to produce lithium carbonate shows a certain trend, and the import profit of lithium carbonate also has corresponding changes over time [38]. - Theoretical Delivery Profit: The theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate fluctuates within a certain range over time [40]. 3.5 Risk Management Strategies for Lithium - Battery Enterprises - Procurement Management: For enterprises with no correlation between product prices, when worried about rising procurement costs, they can buy 10% of far - month futures contracts, sell 10% of LC2601 - P - 80,000, and use an option combination strategy (sell put options + buy call options) at a 20% ratio. For enterprises with correlated product prices, they can sell 60% of the main futures contracts according to the procurement progress and use a combination option strategy (buy put options + sell call options) at a 30% ratio [2]. - Sales Management: Enterprises worried about falling sales profits can sell 60% of corresponding futures contracts and use a combination option strategy (buy put options + sell call options) at a 30% ratio [2]. - Inventory Management: Enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventory can sell 60% of the main futures contracts and 30% of LC2601 - C - 100,000 to lock in inventory value [2].