国电南瑞（600406）：收入保持两位数增长，毛利率略有承压

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 38.58 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.86 billion yuan, up 8.4% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 4.64 billion yuan, an increase of 7.0% year-on-year [2][4] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 14.33 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.7% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 6.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for this quarter was 1.90 billion yuan, up 7.8% year-on-year but down 16.2% quarter-on-quarter [2][4] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - The company continues to maintain double-digit revenue growth, with the first nine months of 2025 showing a revenue growth rate that outpaces the 9.9% increase in China's power grid investment [9] Profitability - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 26.47%, a decrease of 2.68 percentage points year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the gross margin was 26.51%, down 3.01 percentage points year-on-year and 1.24 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [9] Expense Management - The total expense ratio for the first three quarters of 2025 was 11.96%, a decrease of 1.20 percentage points year-on-year. The breakdown includes a sales expense ratio of 3.91%, a management expense ratio of 2.49%, a research and development expense ratio of 5.98%, and a financial expense ratio of -0.41% [9] Inventory and Liabilities - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company's inventory was 15.937 billion yuan, an increase of 24.7% year-on-year. The contract liabilities stood at 8.226 billion yuan, up 53.7% year-on-year [9] Cash Flow - The operating net cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 was 4.714 billion yuan, a significant increase of 161.3% year-on-year. However, in Q3 2025, the operating net cash flow was 1.906 billion yuan, down 3.2% year-on-year and 38.4% quarter-on-quarter [9] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 8.5 billion yuan for 2025, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of about 22.4 times [9]