南华期货生猪企业风险管理日报-20251118

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Policy interventions are frequent, potentially affecting the long - term supply of live pigs. Long - term strategic view is bullish, but short - to medium - term is still based on fundamentals. The policy bottom has emerged, but the market bottom may need a production cycle to form. The current fundamental situation is oversupply. Policy expectations, along with issues like disease and transportation, led to concentrated slaughter during holidays, causing a short - term decline in pig prices. Although there were signs of a bottom in the futures market, the weakening of second - fattening has increased supply pressure again [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Price Forecast - The predicted price range for the main contract is 11,000 - 13,500. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 12.64%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 21.34% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies for Pig Enterprises - Inventory Management: For high product inventory and fear of inventory impairment, strategies include short - selling LH2601 futures (10% recommended), selling LH2601 - C - 13000 call options (10% recommended), and buying LH2601 - P - 11000 put options [2]. - Procurement Management: For future procurement plans and fear of price increases, strategies include buying long - term pig contracts according to the procurement plan, selling LH2601 - P - 11000 put options, and buying LH2601 - C - 13000 call options [2]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - Policy interventions are frequent, affecting long - term supply. The policy bottom has appeared, but the market bottom needs time. The current supply exceeds demand, and short - term price drops are due to concentrated slaughter and other factors. Although there were signs of a bottom in the futures market, supply pressure has increased again [3]. 3.4 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish: Macro sentiment has improved, the standard - fat price spread is at a high level, and there is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - to long - term [6]. - Bearish: The inventory of breeding sows is still high, the inventory of large - scale enterprises is at a three - year high, downstream consumption is weak, and second - fattening has weakened recently [6]. 3.5 Pig Prices - Spot Prices: The national average is 11.47 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan (- 0.17%). Prices in different provinces vary, with some rising, some falling, and some unchanged [9]. - Futures Prices: All contracts except for the November contract declined. The January contract closed at 11,535 yuan/ton, down 1.37%; the March contract at 11,355 yuan/ton, down 1%; the May contract at 12,040 yuan/ton, down 0.82%; the July contract at 12,735 yuan/ton, down 0.93%; the September contract at 13,560 yuan/ton, down 0.62%; and the November contract remained unchanged at 11,800 yuan/ton [10]. 3.6 Pig Price Spreads and Basis - Spreads and basis between different contracts and regions have changed, with some increasing and some decreasing. For example, the LH01 - 03 spread increased by 7.14% to 225 yuan/ton [18][20].