CATL(SZ:300750) Shanghai Aijian Securities·2025-11-19 03:21Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" compared to the market [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a stable production of photovoltaic components since the second half of 2025, with a slight increase in production from leading companies, while most others are reducing output to clear inventory [2][6] - The demand for energy storage is robust, with a significant year-on-year increase in battery production, particularly in the energy storage segment [2][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of recent policy developments and strategic partnerships in the energy sector, which are expected to drive growth [35][38] Summary by Sections 1. Production - Photovoltaic component production in November 2025 is expected to be below 44.5 GW, with leading companies showing slight increases while others reduce output [2][6] - Battery production for November 2025 is projected at 209 GWh, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 12.4% and a year-on-year growth of 64.6% [2][6] 2. Pricing - The average bid price for lithium iron phosphate battery storage systems in October 2025 ranged from 0.43 to 0.7487 CNY/Wh, with an average of 0.5547 CNY/Wh, marking a 10% increase [10][11] - The weighted average price for 4-hour lithium iron phosphate battery storage systems increased by 23.23% [10] 3. Domestic Demand - In September 2025, the domestic photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 9.7 GW, a month-on-month growth of 31.3% but a year-on-year decline of 53.8% [20] - The cumulative newly added photovoltaic installed capacity from January to September 2025 reached 240.27 GW, a year-on-year increase of 49.3% [20] 4. Overseas Demand - In September 2025, the export value of photovoltaic components was approximately 2.8 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 39.0% [23][27] - The cumulative export value from January to September 2025 was 21.2 billion USD, a year-on-year decrease of 14.0% [23] 5. Industry Dynamics - The National Energy Administration issued guidelines to promote the integrated development of renewable energy on November 12, 2025 [35] - The World Power Battery Conference was held on November 12-13, 2025, highlighting the growth potential of the power battery industry [36] - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed between Haibo Shichuang and CATL to deepen collaboration in the energy storage sector [38]