金雷股份(300443):2025年三季报点评:铸造轴盈利持续修复,出货预期高增贡献弹性

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6] Core Views - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with a 61.3% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 2.119 billion [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period increased by 104.6% year-on-year, amounting to 305 million [6] - The report highlights the strong demand for wind power components, particularly the growth in sales of forged and cast shafts, contributing to improved profitability [6] - The company is expected to benefit from increased production capacity and demand in the offshore wind sector, with projections for net profit to reach 431 million in 2025, representing a 149% year-on-year increase [4][6] Financial Summary - Total shares outstanding: 320.13 million [2] - Market price: 26.08 yuan, with a market capitalization of 8,349.11 million [2] - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E show a growth trajectory from 1,946 million to 4,349 million [4] - The company anticipates a significant increase in effective production capacity for cast products, expected to reach 130,000 to 150,000 tons by 2026 [6] - The report includes a detailed earnings forecast, with net profits projected at 4.3 billion, 6.4 billion, and 7.3 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][8]