Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-11-19 10:20Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The decline in spot prices has led to a weakening of the futures market. The log port inventory as of November 7th was 2.93 million cubic meters (+5), with a daily average outbound volume of 66,300 cubic meters per day (+3,500), maintaining resilience. The prices of certain log specifications in the spot market have decreased this week. The impact of the opening of US log imports on the futures market is relatively small. The lg2601 contract showed a weekly increase of 1.28% and remained in a low - volatility oscillation state this week, while the lg2603 contract rose 0.38% with a position of only 4,000 lots. There is an opportunity to short the 01 - 03 spread in the long - term [5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Log Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 780 - 830, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4% [1]. Hedging Strategies - Inventory Management: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price declines, enterprises with long spot exposure can short log futures (lg2601) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 810 - 820 [1]. - Procurement Management: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on order situations, enterprises with short spot exposure can buy log futures (lg2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 740 - 750 [1]. Market Conditions - Futures Market: lg2601 closed at 775.5 (-11) with a position of 17,000 lots, and lg2603 closed at 791.5 (-5) [4]. - Spot Market: The spot price decreased this week. For example, the market price of 5.9 - meter medium A logs in Lanshan area was 770 (-10) [4]. - Valuation: The warehouse receipt cost is approximately 811 yuan per cubic meter in the Yangtze River Delta and 803 yuan per cubic meter in Shandong [4]. - Inventory: As of November 7th, the national inventory was 2.93 million cubic meters (+5) [4]. Core Contradictions - The decline in spot prices has led to a weakening of the futures market. The log port inventory is increasing, and the daily average outbound volume remains resilient. The prices of certain log specifications in the spot market have decreased, and the impact of the opening of US log imports on the futures market is relatively small [5]. Strategies - Short at high prices. - Pay attention to the 01 - 03 reverse spread opportunity in the long - term. - Short the lg2601 - C - 800 position at high prices [7]. Factors Affecting the Market - Positive Factors: The inventory is relatively low [7]. - Negative Factors: The emergence of domestic deliverable log products; the reduced willingness of buyers to accept deliverable products at non - mainstream delivery warehouses; the decline in spot prices and weak market demand [9].