iQIYI(US:IQ) HTSC·2025-11-20 01:29Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported total revenue of 6.7 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decline of 7.8%, which was slightly better than the consensus expectation of a decline of 8.6% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit was -150 million yuan, compared to the consensus expectation of -120 million yuan [1] - Management indicated that new regulations from the National Radio and Television Administration have positively impacted the company, and they are exploring innovative content production models [1] - Membership services showed a positive trend due to improvements in content quality and sales strategies, with expectations for revenue growth in Q4 [1] Revenue and Membership Performance - Membership service revenue for Q3 2025 was 4.2 billion yuan, down 3.5% year-on-year but up 3% quarter-on-quarter, driven by popular self-produced series and films [2] - The company maintained the leading market share in long video series, with significant viewership for titles like "Chao Xue Lu" and "Sheng Wan Wu" [2] Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin was 18.2%, a decrease of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year, with content costs at 4.04 billion yuan, down 0.7% year-on-year [3] - Non-GAAP operating expenses totaled 1.27 billion yuan, with an expense ratio of 19.0%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Management is leveraging a unique IP reserve to enhance user experience and is developing both IP-based consumer products and offline experiences [3] AI and International Business Growth - The company is utilizing AI to produce high-quality original micro-animations at lower costs and to enhance user experience through AI-driven features [4] - International business revenue outside mainland China grew by over 40% year-on-year in Q3 2025, marking the highest growth in nearly two years [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 27.3 billion, 28.5 billion, and 29.8 billion yuan, respectively [5] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for the same period are adjusted to 0.9 billion, 6.7 billion, and 10.1 billion yuan [5] - The target price is set at $2.92, reflecting a valuation of 0.7x 2026 PS, which is at a discount compared to the industry average of 5.3x [5]