Nvidia(US:NVDA) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-11-20 02:03Group 1: Financial Futures Report Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Overseas, the end of the US government shutdown requires attention to economic data release and its impact on the actual economy. The absence of October non - farm data and the Fed's divided views have cooled the interest - rate cut expectation. Domestically, the economic fundamentals are showing a marginal slowdown, and the policy support and its effectiveness are key concerns [1]. Summary by Directory - Macro: The Fed's meeting minutes showed serious differences, with many opposing a December rate cut. The US October non - farm data is not released, and the November report is postponed, leading to a cooling of the rate - cut expectation. Overseas, focus on the impact of the government shutdown on the economy, and domestically, pay attention to policy support [1]. - RMB Exchange Rate: Affected by the non - farm data and the Fed's differences, the US dollar index is strong, and the rate - cut expectation has cooled. Follow US November economic data, the next Fed chair candidate, and domestic enterprises' willingness to settle foreign exchange. The RMB may get some support from seasonal effects [2]. - Strategy Suggestion: Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement at around 7.12, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at around 7.07 [3]. - Stock Index: Nvidia's earnings exceeded expectations, which may drive up the domestic technology sector. The index style may switch to small - and medium - cap stocks in the short term. The index is expected to oscillate with upper pressure and lower support [3][5]. - Treasury Bonds: Maintain a medium - term bullish view. Although the A - share rebound and other factors have affected the bond market, the medium - term fundamentals still support it. Mid - term long positions can be held, and short - term long positions can be established on dips [5][6]. - Container Shipping to Europe: The futures price oscillates, waiting for new drivers. There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market, and the short - term is expected to be weakly oscillating. Trend traders can wait and see, and arbitrage traders can take profit on the 12 - 02 reverse spread [7][8][9]. Group 2: Commodities Report Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The performance of different commodities varies. For precious metals, the short - term is affected by the unclear rate - cut prospect, while the medium - and long - term is supported by factors such as central bank gold purchases. Other commodities are also influenced by their respective supply - demand, cost, and policy factors [12][15]. Summary by Directory - Precious Metals (Gold & Silver): The rate - cut expectation has cooled. Focus on the US September non - farm employment report. In the short term, the price may continue to oscillate and adjust, and dips can be used to build long positions. The long - term price is expected to rise [12][13][15]. - Copper: The delay of non - farm employment data makes the copper price lack elasticity. The short - term is mainly about post - decline repair. Pay attention to the support at 86000 and the pressure at 87000. Downstream enterprises can use a combined strategy to reduce procurement costs [15][17]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly in the medium - and long - term and oscillate in the short - term. Alumina is expected to be weakly running, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate at a high level [17][18][19]. - Zinc: It is expected to oscillate narrowly. The rate - cut expectation has cooled, and the smelting end may reduce production in November. Observe the inventory changes and the bottom space at the end of the month [19][20]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: They are oscillating at the bottom, waiting for clear signals. The supply of nickel ore may be affected by the rainy season and typhoons, and the demand for nickel - iron is weak. Stainless steel has high inventory and low demand [20][21]. - Tin: It is oscillating narrowly. Due to the shortage of concentrates, the supply is weaker than demand, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [23]. - Lithium Carbonate: Be cautious about chasing high prices. The downstream replenishment willingness is low, and the upside space is doubtful. It is recommended to gradually take profit on long positions [23][24]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon has limited downside space, and it is recommended to build long positions on dips. Polysilicon has weak short - term fundamentals, and it is suitable to short on rallies [25][26]. - Lead: The bottom space is small. The supply is tight, and the import window is open. It is expected to oscillate [27][28]. Group 3: Black Metals Report Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The black metal market is affected by factors such as environmental protection inspections, supply - demand relationships, and cost. The overall is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the risk of negative feedback [29]. Summary by Directory - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: They are expected to oscillate within a range. Rebar's supply - demand balance is marginally improving, and hot - rolled coil has high inventory and needs to reduce production to destock. Pay attention to the de - stocking speed and downstream consumption [29][30]. - Iron Ore: The valuation is being repaired. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and there is a shortage of deliverable products. Wait for the basis to be repaired and then consider shorting on rallies [31][33]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The spot price of coking coal in Shanxi has loosened, and the short - term may face adjustment pressure. The medium - and long - term is supported by policies and winter storage demand. Consider building long positions when the price falls to the lower limit of the range [34][35]. - Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese: They continue to accumulate inventory. The demand is expected to decline, and they are expected to oscillate weakly [36][37]. Group 4: Energy and Chemicals Report Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The energy and chemical market is affected by geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. Different products have different trends, and attention should be paid to relevant factors such as geopolitical risks and macro - funds' risk - aversion trends [39]. Summary by Directory - Crude Oil: The geopolitical situation has cooled. It is expected to oscillate between 60 - 65 in the short - and medium - term. Pay attention to geopolitical risks and macro - funds' risk - aversion trends [39][40][41]. - LPG: The cost fluctuates greatly, and the domestic market is relatively strong. The supply is slightly decreasing, the demand of PDH is in a loss state, and the inventory is decreasing. The overall fundamentals are neutral to positive, but the valuation is high [42][43]. - PTA - PX: The aromatics blending logic is strengthened, and they are expected to oscillate strongly with the cost. Pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans and macro - dynamics. The PTA processing fee can be operated within the range of 200 - 290 [44][47][48]. - MEG - Bottle Chip: Consider taking profit on short positions and switch to selling call options. The demand is expected to be stable in November and weaken seasonally in December. The supply may accumulate inventory, and the long - term is under pressure [49][50]. - Methanol: The 01 contract is expected to be weakly running. The port pressure is difficult to relieve, and it is recommended to hold short call options and conduct reverse spreads [51][52]. - PP: It is oscillating at the bottom. The supply pressure may be relieved if more devices stop, and the demand is good in the short term. It is not advisable to short further in the short term and can consider going long on dips [53][55]. - PE: The fundamental driving force is insufficient. The supply pressure is large, and the demand growth space is limited in the long term. The downward space is limited, but the upward pressure exists [56][57]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: The aromatics market is running strongly. Pure benzene may have more negative feedback, and styrene has high inventory and limited rebound height [58][59]. - Fuel Oil: The high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and the low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be supported by factors such as supply reduction and demand improvement [60][61][62]. - Asphalt: The bottom space is small. Pay attention to the winter storage willingness. The short - term is expected to oscillate, and the long - term demand may be affected by seasonal factors [63][64][65]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda: Soda ash is mainly cost - priced and has limited upward elasticity. Glass has high inventory and downward pressure. Caustic soda has high supply and weak demand in the long term [65][66][67]. - Pulp and Offset Paper: The futures price centers are moving down. Pulp is affected by macro - sentiment, inventory, and supply, and offset paper is affected by tender prices [68][69]. - Log: Continue to pay attention to shorting opportunities and the 01 - 03 reverse spread. The spot price decline drives the futures price down, and the inventory is increasing [70][71].