PDD(US:PDD) Guoxin Securities·2025-11-20 02:42Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Pinduoduo (PDD.O) [3][5][14] Core Insights - The company's revenue for the quarter reached 108.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%, with advertising revenue at 53.3 billion yuan (up 8% YoY) and payment channel revenue at 54.9 billion yuan (up 10% YoY) [1][6] - Non-GAAP net profit for the quarter was 31.6 billion yuan, reflecting a 15% YoY increase, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 29%, up 6 percentage points YoY [2][7] - The company is focusing on long-term investments, with management indicating that growth rates may fluctuate in the future [3][14] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The report indicates that the advertising revenue's growth rate has declined for the first time, while payment channel revenue growth has also slowed due to structural adjustments and increased investments in platform ecosystem [1][6] - The gross profit margin for the quarter was 57%, down 3 percentage points YoY, primarily due to rising costs in logistics, bandwidth, and service fees [2][7] - The company expects a loss of 3.6 billion yuan from overseas operations for the quarter [2][7] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 442.4 billion, 496 billion, and 557.9 billion yuan, reflecting minor adjustments due to uncertainties in overseas business recovery [3][14] - Adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 are set at 116.5 billion, 141.3 billion, and 155.4 billion yuan, with increases attributed to interest income from cash reserves [3][14] Key Financial Metrics - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, including adjusted earnings per share for 2025 at 21.27 yuan, with a projected PE ratio of 10.2 [4][17] - The EBIT margin is expected to be 22.2% in 2025, with a net asset return (ROE) of 25.2% [4][17]