航运日报：12月上半月价格逐步报出，关注实际落地情况-20251120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In December, the contract trading focuses on the rhythm. Shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high for next - year's long - term agreement negotiations. Attention should be paid to the implementation of price - holding in December. The 12 - month contract is expected to trade price - increase expectations and actual implementation alternately until delivery. The bottom support of the 12 - month contract is rising [4]. - The February 2026 contract may have a large expected difference but is currently suppressed by the resumption - of - navigation expectation. The delivery and settlement price of the EC2602 contract basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January 2026. Whether the shipping companies' price - holding time will be postponed is uncertain. Continuous tracking is needed [5][6]. - The strategy suggests that the 12 - month contract will fluctuate, and the 2 - month contract will fluctuate strongly, and there is no arbitrage strategy for now [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different alliances and shipping companies have different price quotes and increases from November to December. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam price increased from week 48 to December; HPL - SPOT's price also rose significantly from the second half of November to December. MSC + Premier Alliance and Ocean Alliance also had similar price - increase trends [1][2]. - Geopolitical situation: Israeli military air - raids in Gaza and Lebanon have caused casualties and tensions, which may impact the shipping market [2]. 3.2 Dynamic Supply - In November, the remaining 3 - week average weekly capacity was 275,800 TEU, and in December, the monthly average weekly capacity was 313,000 TEU. There were 10 blank sailings and 1 TBN in November and 4 TBNs and 1 blank sailing in December, with different distributions among alliances [3]. 3.3 12 - Month Contract - The trading rhythm of the 12 - month contract involves trading price - increase expectations and actual implementation alternately. The price center in the second half of November was around $2,100 - 2,200/FEU, and shipping companies have issued price - increase letters for December. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the price increase in the first half of December and whether there will be another price - increase announcement in the second half of December [4]. 3.4 2026 February Contract - The last trading day of the EC2602 contract is February 9, 2026, and the delivery and settlement price is the arithmetic average of the prices on January 26, February 2, and February 9, 2026. Due to the Spring Festival holiday, it basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January. Whether the shipping companies' price - holding time will be postponed is uncertain, and follow - up attention should be paid to price - increase announcements in late November and mid - December [5][6]. 3.5 Futures and Spot Prices - As of November 19, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 71,070 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 23,971 lots. The closing prices of different contracts varied. The SCFI prices of different routes were also provided, such as the Shanghai - Europe route price of $1,417/TEU on November 14 [6]. 3.6 Container Ship Delivery - 2025 is a big year for container ship delivery. As of November 9, 2025, 226 container ships with a total capacity of 1.879 million TEU have been delivered, including 71 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU with a total capacity of 1.072 million TEU and 12 ships of over 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 253,800 TEU [7].