Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-11-20 04:48Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the medium to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals. However, in the short - term, the unclear prospects of a December interest rate cut will lead to continued fluctuations and adjustments, with a possible narrowing of the fluctuation range. It is recommended to pay attention to the retracement of the 60 - day moving average, and dips are considered opportunities to buy. Resistance and support levels are provided for London gold and silver [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾 - On Wednesday, precious metal prices fluctuated slightly higher. Although NVIDIA's earnings report was slightly higher than expected, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations declined. The VIX of US stocks and the MOVE index of US bonds both rose, and Bitcoin continued to fall, increasing the demand for precious metals and US dollars as a hedge. The market is focused on the US September non - farm payrolls report to be released on Thursday night. The Fed's meeting minutes showed internal differences, with many thinking it inappropriate to cut rates in December. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4078.3 per ounce (+0.29%), and other contracts also had corresponding price changes [1]. 3.2降息预期与基金持仓 - Interest rate cut expectations have declined, with only a 30% probability of a December rate cut. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged on December 11 is 67.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 32.8%. Long - term fund positions: SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 2.29 tons to 1043.72 tons, and iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 8.46 tons to 15226.88 tons. In terms of inventory, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 16 tons to 547.7 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 47.7 tons to 774.7 tons as of the week ending November 14 [2]. 3.3本周关注 - In terms of data, focus on the补发 of US government data after the restart, especially the US September non - farm payrolls report on Thursday night. In terms of events, several Fed officials will give speeches on Friday [3]. 3.4贵金属期现价格表 - Provides the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE gold and silver main contracts, SGX gold and silver TD, CME gold and silver main contracts, SHFE - TD gold and silver, and CME gold - silver ratio [5]. 3.5库存持仓表 - Shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories and positions, as well as SPDR gold and SLV silver positions [13]. 3.6股债商汇总览 - Presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar against the RMB, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread [19].